Qagela ubhubhane ngaphambi kokuthi lufike

I-algorithm yaseCanada ye-BlueDot yayishesha kunochwepheshe ekuboneni usongo lwe-coronavirus yakamuva. Watshela amakhasimende akhe ngezinsuku ezisabisayo ngaphambi kokuthi i-US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) kanye neWorld Health Organisation (WHO) zithumele izaziso ezisemthethweni emhlabeni.

Kamran Khan (1), udokotela, uchwepheshe wezifo ezithathelwanayo, umsunguli kanye ne-CEO yohlelo I-BlueDot, kuchazwe engxoxweni yabezindaba ukuthi lolu hlelo lwesixwayiso kusenesikhathi lusebenzisa kanjani ubuhlakani bokwenziwa, okuhlanganisa ukucubungula ulimi lwemvelo nokufunda ngomshini, ukulandelela ngisho izifo ezithathelwanayo eziyikhulu ngesikhathi esisodwa. Cishe izindatshana eziyi-100 ngezilimi ezingama-65 zihlaziywa nsuku zonke.

1. UKamran Khan kanye nemephu ekhombisa ukusabalala kwe-coronavirus yase-Wuhan.

Le datha ikhombisa izinkampani ukuthi kufanele zazise nini amakhasimende azo ngokuba khona okungenzeka nokusabalala kwesifo esithathelwanayo. Enye idatha, efana nolwazi olumayelana nezinhlelo zohambo nezindiza, ingasiza ekunikezeni ulwazi olwengeziwe mayelana nokungenzeka kokuqubuka kwesifo.

Umbono ngemuva kwemodeli yeBlueDot umi kanje. thola ulwazi ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka abasebenzi bezempilo ngethemba lokuthi bangakwazi ukuxilonga - futhi, uma kunesidingo, bahlukanise - abantu abangenwe yileli gciwane kanye nabangase batheleleke ngesikhathi sosongo. UKhan uchaza ukuthi i-algorithm ayisebenzisi idatha yenkundla yezokuxhumana ngoba "inesiphithiphithi kakhulu". Kodwa-ke, "ulwazi olusemthethweni aluhlali lusesimweni," etshela uRecode. Futhi isikhathi sokusabela yisona esibalulekile ukuvimbela ngempumelelo ukuqubuka.

UKhan ubesebenza njengochwepheshe bezifo ezithathelwanayo eToronto ngo-2003 ngesikhathi kwenzeka. isifo SARS. Wayefuna ukwakha indlela entsha yokugcina umkhondo walezi zinhlobo zezifo. Ngemva kokuhlola izinhlelo eziningana zokubikezela, wethula i-BlueDot ku-2014 futhi wakhulisa u-$ 9,4 wezigidi ngezimali zephrojekthi yakhe. Njengamanje inkampani inabasebenzi abangamashumi amane, odokotela nabahleli bohleloabakha ithuluzi lokuhlaziya ukulandelela izifo.

Ngemva kokuqoqa idatha nokukhetha kwabo kokuqala, bangena emdlalweni abahlaziyi. ngemva izazi ze-epidemiologists Bahlola okutholiwe ukuze bathole ukufaneleka kwesayensi bese bebika kuhulumeni, amabhizinisi, nabasebenzi bezempilo. amaklayenti.

UKhan wengeze ngokuthi uhlelo lwakhe lungasebenzisa nohlu lweminye imininingwane, efana nolwazi ngesimo sezulu sendawo ethile, izinga lokushisa, ngisho nolwazi ngemfuyo yendawo, ukubikezela ukuthi umuntu ongenwe yilesi sifo angadala yini ukuqubuka. Uveza ukuthi ekuqaleni kuka-2016, i-Blue-Dot yakwazi ukubikezela ukuqubuka kwegciwane leZika eFlorida izinyanga eziyisithupha ngaphambi kokuba ibhaliswe ngempela endaweni.

Inkampani isebenza ngendlela efanayo futhi isebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obufanayo. I-Metabiotukuqapha ubhubhane lwe-SARS. Ochwepheshe bayo ngesinye isikhathi bathola ukuthi ingozi enkulu yokuvela kwaleli gciwane eThailand, eSouth Korea, Japan naseTaiwan, futhi bakwenza lokhu esikhathini esingaphezu kwesonto ngaphambi kokumenyezelwa kwamacala kulawa mazwe. Ezinye zeziphetho zabo zithathwe ekuhlaziyweni kwedatha yendiza yabagibeli.

I-Metabiota, njenge-BlueDot, isebenzisa ukucutshungulwa kolimi lwemvelo ukuhlola imibiko yezifo ezingaba khona, kodwa futhi isebenza ukuthuthukisa ubuchwepheshe obufanayo bolwazi lwezokuxhumana.

UMark Gallivan, umqondisi wesayensi yedatha ye-Metabiota, uchazele abezindaba ukuthi amapulatifomu e-inthanethi nezinkundla zingabonisa ingozi yokuqubuka kwesifo. Ongoti bezisebenzi bathi bangakwazi ukulinganisa ubungozi besifo esidala izinxushunxushu kwezenhlalo nezepolitiki ngokusekelwe olwazini olufana nezimpawu zesifo, ukufa kanye nokuba khona kokwelashwa.

Esikhathini se-inthanethi, wonke umuntu ulindele isethulo esibonakalayo esisheshayo, esithembekile futhi mhlawumbe esifundekayo solwazi mayelana nokuqhubeka kobhubhane lwe-coronavirus, ngokwesibonelo, ngendlela yemephu ebuyekeziwe.

2. Ideshibhodi ye-Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.

ICentre for Systems Science and Engineering eJohns Hopkins University seyakhe mhlawumbe ideshibhodi edume kakhulu ye-coronavirus emhlabeni (2). Iphinde inikeze idathasethi ephelele ukuze ilandwe njengeshidi le-Google. Imephu ikhombisa amacala amasha, ukufa okuqinisekisiwe kanye nokululama. Idatha esetshenziselwa ukubonakala ivela emithonjeni eyahlukene, okuhlanganisa i-WHO, i-CDC, i-China CDC, i-NHC, ne-DXY, iwebhusayithi yase-China ehlanganisa imibiko ye-NHC kanye nemibiko yesikhathi sangempela yesimo se-CCDC sendawo.

Ukuxilongwa ngamahora, hhayi izinsuku

Umhlaba waqala ukuzwa ngesifo esisha esavela eWuhan, eChina. Disemba 31, 2019 Ngemva kwesonto, ososayensi baseShayina bamemezele ukuthi sebeyitholile imbangela. Ngesonto elilandelayo, ochwepheshe baseJalimane benza ukuhlolwa kokuqala kokuxilonga (3). Iyashesha, ishesha kakhulu kunangezinsuku ze-SARS noma ubhubhane olufanayo ngaphambi nangemuva.

Ekuqaleni kweminyaka eyishumi edlule, ososayensi abafuna uhlobo oluthile lwegciwane eliyingozi kwadingeka balikhulise kumaseli ezilwane ezitsheni zePetri. Kumelwe ukuba udale amagciwane anele ukuze wakhe hlukanisa i-DNA futhi ufunde ikhodi yofuzo ngenqubo eyaziwa ngokuthi ukulandelana kwezenzo. Nokho, eminyakeni yamuva nje, le nqubo iye yathuthuka kakhulu.

Ososayensi abasadingi ngisho nokukhulisa leli gciwane kumaseli. Bangakwazi ukubona ngokuqondile amanani amancane kakhulu e-DNA yegciwane emaphashini esiguli noma ekuphumeni kwegazi. Futhi kuthatha amahora, hhayi izinsuku.

Umsebenzi uyaqhubeka wokuthuthukisa amathuluzi okuthola amagciwane asheshayo futhi afaneleka kakhudlwana. I-Veredus Laboratories eseSingapore isebenza ngekhithi ephathekayo ukuthola, I-VereChip (4) izothengiswa kusukela ngoFebhuwari 1 kulo nyaka. Izixazululo ezisebenzayo neziphathwayo zizophinde zikwenze kusheshe ukuhlonza labo abangenwe yileli gciwane ukuze bathole ukunakekelwa okufanele lapho kuthunyelwa amaqembu ezokwelapha emkhakheni, ikakhulukazi lapho izibhedlela zigcwele kakhulu.

Intuthuko yakamuva yezobuchwepheshe yenze kwaba nokwenzeka ukuqoqa nokwabelana ngemiphumela yokuxilonga eduze nesikhathi sangempela. Isibonelo sePlatform esivela ku-Quidel Sofia I system I-PCR10 FilmArray Izinkampani ze-BioFire ezihlinzeka ngokuhlolwa okusheshayo kokuxilonga amagciwane okuphefumula zitholakala ngokushesha ngoxhumo olungenantambo kusizindalwazi esisefwini.

I-genome ye-2019-nCoV coronavirus (COVID-19) ilandelwe ngokugcwele ososayensi baseShayina esikhathini esingaphansi kwenyanga kutholwe icala lokuqala. Cishe ezinye ezingamashumi amabili seziqediwe kusukela ekulandeleni kokuqala. Uma kuqhathaniswa, ubhubhane lwegciwane le-SARS lwaqala ngasekupheleni kuka-2002, futhi i-genome yalo ephelele ayizange itholakale kuze kube ngu-April 2003.

Ukulandelana kwe-genome kubalulekile ekuthuthukisweni kokuxilonga kanye nemigomo yokulwa nalesi sifo.

Hospital Innovation

5. Irobhothi lezokwelapha elivela e-Providence Regional Medical Center e-Everett.

Ngeshwa, i-coronavirus entsha isongela nodokotela. Ngokusho kwe-CNN, ukuvimbela ukusabalala kwe-coronavirus ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwesibhedlela, abasebenzi baseProvidence Regional Medical Center e-Everett, Washington, basebenzisa Irobhothi (5), ekala izimpawu ezibalulekile esigulini esizimele futhi esebenza njengenkundla yenkomfa ngevidiyo. Umshini ungaphezu nje kokuxhumana ngamasondo anesikrini esakhelwe ngaphakathi, kodwa awukuqedi ngokuphelele umsebenzi womuntu.

Abahlengikazi kusafanele bangene ekamelweni nesiguli. Baphinde balawule irobhothi elingeke livezwe ekuthelelekeni, okungenani ngokwebhayoloji, ngakho-ke amadivaysi alolu hlobo azosetshenziswa ngokwandayo ekwelapheni izifo ezithathelwanayo.

Yiqiniso, amakamelo angakwazi ukufakwa, kodwa futhi udinga ukufaka umoya ukuze ukwazi ukuphefumula. Lokhu kudinga okusha izinhlelo zokungenisa umoyaukuvimbela ukusabalala kwamagciwane.

Inkampani yaseFinland iGenano (6), eyathuthukisa lezi zinhlobo zamasu, yathola umyalo oqondile wezikhungo zezokwelapha eChina. Isitatimende esisemthethweni sale nkampani sithi le nkampani inolwazi olunzulu ekuhlinzekeni ngemishini yokuvikela ukubhebhetheka kwezifo ezithathelanayo emagumbini ezibhedlela angenalutho nangasese. Eminyakeni eyedlule, ubeletha, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ezikhungweni zezokwelapha eSaudi Arabia ngesikhathi sobhubhane lwegciwane le-MERS. Imishini yaseFinland yokungenisa umoya ephephile nayo ihanjiswe esibhedlela esidumile sesikhashana sabantu abangenwe yi-coronavirus ye-2019-nCoV eWuhan, eseyakhiwe ngezinsuku eziyishumi.

6. Umdwebo wesistimu yeGenano ku-insulator

Ubuchwepheshe obunelungelo lobunikazi obusetshenziswa kuzihlanzi "buqeda futhi bubulale wonke amagciwane asemoyeni afana namagciwane namagciwane," ngokusho kukaGenano. Iyakwazi ukubamba izinhlayiya ezinhle ezincane njengama-nanometers angu-3, ​​izihlanzi zomoya azinaso isihlungi semishini ukuze sigcinwe, futhi umoya uhlungwa yinkambu kagesi enamandla.

Elinye ilukuluku lobuchwepheshe elivele ngesikhathi kuqubuka ukwesaba i-coronavirus kwaba izikena ezishisayo, esetshenziswa, phakathi kwezinye izinto, abantu abanomkhuhlane bathathwa ezikhumulweni zezindiza zaseNdiya.

I-inthanethi - ibuhlungu noma iyasiza?

Ngaphandle kwegagasi elikhulu lokugxekwa ngokuphindaphinda nokusabalalisa, ukusabalalisa imininingwane engamanga nokwethuka, amathuluzi enkundla yezokuxhumana nawo abambe iqhaza elihle selokhu kwagqashuka iChina.

Njengoba kubikiwe, ngokwesibonelo, yisizindalwazi saseShayina i-TMT Post, inkundla yezokuxhumana yamavidiyo amancane. UDouyin, okuyisilinganiso saseShayina esidume umhlaba wonke i-TikTok (7), yethule ingxenye ekhethekile yokucubungula imininingwane mayelana nokusabalala kwe-coronavirus. Ngaphansi kwe-hashtag #FightPneumonia, ayishicileli kuphela ulwazi oluvela kubasebenzisi, kodwa futhi nemibiko yochwepheshe nezeluleko.

Ngaphezu kokuqwashisa nokusabalalisa ulwazi olubalulekile, i-Douyin iphinde ihlose ukusebenza njengethuluzi lokusekela odokotela nabasebenzi bezokwelapha abalwa naleli gciwane, kanye neziguli ezinegciwane. Umhlaziyi Daniel Ahmad ubhale ku-Twitter ukuthi uhlelo lokusebenza lwethule "umphumela wevidiyo we-Jiayou" (okusho isikhuthazo) abasebenzisi okufanele bawusebenzise ukuthumela imilayezo eyakhayo yokweseka odokotela, ochwepheshe bezempilo, neziguli. Lolu hlobo lokuqukethwe luphinde lushicilelwe ngabantu abadumile, osaziwayo nababizwa ngama-influencers.

Namuhla, kukholakala ukuthi ukucwaninga ngokucophelela kwemikhuba yezokuxhumana ehlobene nempilo kungasiza kakhulu ososayensi neziphathimandla zezempilo zomphakathi ukuthi zibone futhi ziqonde kangcono izindlela zokudluliselwa kwezifo phakathi kwabantu.

Ngokwengxenye ngenxa yokuthi inkundla yezokuxhumana ijwayele ukuba "nezimo eziphakeme futhi ikhula ngokweqile," etshela i-Atlantic ngo-2016. Isaladi yaseMarseille, umcwaningi e-Federal Polytechnic School eLausanne, eSwitzerland, kanye nochwepheshe emkhakheni okhulayo obizwa ososayensi. "I-Digital Epidemiology". Kodwa-ke, okwamanje, wanezela, abacwaningi basazama ukuqonda ukuthi ngabe inkundla yezokuxhumana ikhuluma ngezinkinga zempilo empeleni ezibonisa izenzakalo ze-epidemiological noma cha (8).

8. AmaShayina azishutha egqoke imaski.

Imiphumela yocwaningo lokuqala mayelana nalokhu ayicacile. Kakade ngo-2008, onjiniyela bakwaGoogle bethula ithuluzi lokubikezela izifo - I-Google Flu Trends (GFT). Inkampani ihlele ukuyisebenzisa ukuhlaziya idatha yenjini yokusesha ye-Google ukuze uthole izimpawu namagama esignali. Ngaleso sikhathi, wayethemba ukuthi imiphumela izosetshenziselwa ukuqaphela ngokunembile futhi ngokushesha "izinhlaka" zomkhuhlane kanye nokuqubuka kodenga - emasontweni amabili ngaphambili kuneZikhungo Zokulawula Nokuvimbela Izifo zase-US. (CDC), ucwaningo lwakhe oluthathwa njengezinga elingcono kakhulu kulo mkhakha. Kodwa-ke, imiphumela ye-Google ekuhlonzweni kokuqala okusekelwe ku-inthanethi okusekelwe ku-inthanethi komkhuhlane e-US kanye nomalaleveva kamuva e-Thailand ithathwe njengengalungile kakhulu.

Amasu nezinhlelo “ezibikezela” izehlakalo ezahlukahlukene, kuhlanganisa. njengokuqhuma kwezibhelu noma izifo eziwumshayabhuqe, iMicrosoft nayo isebenzile, okwathi ngo-2013, kanye ne-Israel Technion Institute, yethula uhlelo lokubikezela inhlekelele olusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kokuqukethwe kwabezindaba. Ngosizo lwe-vivisection yezihloko zezindaba zezilimi eziningi, "i-computer intelligence" kwadingeka ibone izinsongo zomphakathi.

Ososayensi bahlola ukulandelana kwezenzakalo ezithile, njengokwaziswa ngesomiso e-Angola, okwaveza izibikezelo ezinhlelweni zokubikezela okungenzeka kube ubhadane lwekholera, njengoba bathola ukuhlobana phakathi kwesomiso nokwanda kwesifo. Uhlaka lwesistimu lwadalwa ngesisekelo sokuhlaziywa kwemibhalo egciniwe ye-New York Times, kusukela ngo-1986. Ukuthuthukiswa okuqhubekayo kanye nenqubo yokufunda komshini kuhilela ukusetshenziswa kwezinsiza ze-inthanethi ezintsha.

Kuze kube manje, ngokusekelwe empumelelweni ye-BlueDot ne-Metabiota ekubikezelweni kwe-epidemiological, umuntu angase alingeke ukuba aphethe ngokuthi ukubikezela okunembile kungenzeka ngokuyinhloko ngesisekelo sedatha "efanelekayo", i.e. imithombo yezobuchwepheshe, eqinisekisiwe, eyisipesheli, hhayi isiphithiphithi se-inthanethi nemiphakathi yephothali.

Kodwa mhlawumbe konke kumayelana nama-algorithms ahlakaniphile nokufunda komshini okungcono?