I-Fermi Paradox ngemuva kwegagasi lokutholwa kwe-exoplanet
Okuqukethwe
Emthaleni i-RX J1131-1231, ithimba lezazi zezinkanyezi ezivela eNyuvesi yase-Oklahoma lithole iqembu lokuqala elaziwayo lamaplanethi ngaphandle kwe-Milky Way. Izinto "ezilandelwayo" ngenqubo ye-gravitional microlensing zinezixuku ezihlukene - ukusuka enyangeni ukuya ku-Jupiter. Ingabe lokhu kutholakala kwenza indida ye-Fermi ibe yindida kakhulu?
Kukhona cishe inani elifanayo lezinkanyezi emthaleni wethu (izigidigidi eziyi-100-400), cishe inani elifanayo lemithala endaweni yonke ebonakalayo - ngakho kunomthala ophelele wayo yonke inkanyezi ku-Milky Way yethu enkulukazi. Ngokuvamile, iminyaka engu-1022 kuya ku-1024 izinkanyezi. Ososayensi abavumelani ngokuthi zingaki izinkanyezi ezifana neLanga lethu (okungukuthi ezifanayo ngosayizi, izinga lokushisa, ukukhanya) - izilinganiso zisukela ku-5% kuya ku-20%. Ukuthatha inani lokuqala nokukhetha inani elincane lezinkanyezi (1022), sithola izinkanyezi eziyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-500 noma ibhiliyoni lezinkanyezi njengeLanga.
Ngokwezifundo nezilinganiso ze-PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences), okungenani u-1% wezinkanyezi ezisemkhathini uzungeza iplanethi ekwazi ukusekela ukuphila - ngakho sikhuluma ngenani lamaplanethi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-100 anezakhiwo ezifanayo. emhlabeni. Uma sicabanga ukuthi ngemva kwezigidigidi zeminyaka yokuphila, i-1% kuphela yamaplanethi oMhlaba azothuthukisa ukuphila, futhi i-1% yawo izoba nempilo yokuziphendukela kwemvelo ngendlela ehlakaniphile, lokhu kungasho ukuthi kukhona iplanethi eyodwa yamabhilidi nempucuko ehlakaniphile endaweni yonke ebonakalayo.
Uma sikhuluma kuphela ngomthala wethu futhi siphinda izibalo, sithatha inani eliqondile lezinkanyezi ku-Milky Way (izigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-100), siphetha ngokuthi cishe kukhona amaplanethi anjengomhlaba okungenani ayibhiliyoni ku-Galaxy yethu. kanye ne-100 XNUMX. impucuko ehlakaniphile!
Ezinye izazi zesayensi yezinkanyezi zibeka ithuba lokuthi isintu sibe uhlobo lokuqala oluthuthuke kakhulu kwezobuchwepheshe koku-1 kweziyi-10.22okungukuthi, ihlala ingabalulekile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, umkhathi usuneminyaka engaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-13,8 ukhona. Ngisho noma impucuko ayizange ivele eminyakeni eyizigidi ezimbalwa zokuqala, kwakusenesikhathi eside ngaphambi kokuba ivele. Ngendlela, uma ngemva kokuqedwa kokugcina ku-Milky Way kwakukhona "kuphela" impucuko eyinkulungwane futhi ngabe ikhona cishe isikhathi esifanayo neyethu (kuze kube manje cishe iminyaka eyi-10 XNUMX), ngakho-ke kungenzeka ukuthi isivele yanyamalala, ukufa noma ukuqoqa abanye okungafinyeleleki ekukhuleni kwethu ezingeni, okuzoxoxwa ngakho kamuva.
Qaphela ukuthi ngisho “ngasikhathi sinye” izimpucuko ezikhona zixhumana kanzima. Ukube nje kungenxa yesizathu sokuthi ukube bekuneminyaka eyizinkulungwane eziyi-10 kuphela yokukhanya, bekungathatha iminyaka eyizinkulungwane ezingama-20 yokukhanya ukubuza umbuzo bese uwuphendula. iminyaka. Uma ubheka umlando woMhlaba, akunakugwenywa ukuthi esikhathini esinjalo impucuko ingavela futhi inyamalale ebusweni ...
Isibalo esivela kokungaziwa kuphela
Ekuzameni ukuhlola ukuthi ingabe impucuko yangaphandle ingaba khona ngempela yini, UFrank Drake ngeminyaka yama-60s uhlongoze i-equation edumile - ifomula umsebenzi wayo "i-memanologically" ukunquma ukuba khona kwezinhlanga ezihlakaniphile emthaleni wethu. Lapha sisebenzisa igama elaqanjwa eminyakeni eminingi edlule ngu-Jan Tadeusz Stanisławski, umdidiyeli nombhali “wezinkulumo” zomsakazo nethelevishini mayelana “nezifundo zezibalo ezisetshenziswayo”, ngoba lelo gama libonakala lifaneleka kulokhu kucatshangelwa.
Ngokusho Izibalo zikaDrake – N, inani lempucuko yangaphandle kwabantu abangaxhumana nayo, iwumkhiqizo:
R* izinga lokwakheka kwenkanyezi kuGalaxy yethu;
fp yiphesenti lezinkanyezi ezinamaplanethi;
ne isilinganiso senani lamaplanethi endaweni okuhlalwa kuyo yenkanyezi, okungukuthi, lawo okungavela kuwo ukuphila;
fl isilinganiso samaplanethi asendaweni okuhlalwa kuyo ukuphila okuyovela kuyo;
fi iphesenti lamaplanethi ahlalwayo lapho ukuphila kuzothuthukisa ubuhlakani (okungukuthi, ukudala impucuko);
fc - amaphesenti ezimpucuko ezifuna ukuxhumana nesintu;
L iyisilinganiso sokuphila kwezimpucuko ezinjalo.
Njengoba ubona, i-equation iqukethe cishe zonke izinto ezingaziwa. Phela, asazi noma isilinganiso sesikhathi sokuba khona kwempucuko, noma amaphesenti alabo abafuna ukuxhumana nathi. Ukushintsha eminye imiphumela ku-equation "ngaphezulu noma ngaphansi", kuvele ukuthi kungase kube namakhulu, uma kungenjalo izinkulungwane, zempucuko enjalo emthaleni wethu.
Drake equation kanye nombhali wayo
Umhlaba ongavamile kanye nabafokazi ababi
Ngisho nokushintsha amanani alondolozayo ezingxenyeni zezibalo zikaDrake, sithola izinkulungwane zempucuko efana neyethu noma ehlakaniphe kakhulu. Kodwa uma kunjalo, kungani bengaxhumani nathi? Lokhu okuthiwa Indida ye-Fermi. "Unezixazululo" nezincazelo eziningi, kodwa ngesimo samanje sobuchwepheshe - futhi ngisho nangaphezulu kwengxenye yekhulu leminyaka edlule - zonke zifana nokuqagela kanye nokudubula okungaboni.
Le ndida, isibonelo, ivame ukuchazwa i-rare earth hypothesisukuthi iplanethi yethu iyingqayizivele ngazo zonke izindlela. Ingcindezi, izinga lokushisa, ibanga ukusuka eLangeni, i-axial tilt, noma inkambu kazibuthe evikela imisebe ikhethwa ukuze impilo ithuthuke futhi iguquke isikhathi eside ngangokunokwenzeka.
Kunjalo, sithola ama-exoplanet andayo ku-ecosphere angaba amaplanethi okuhlaleka kuwo. Muva nje, zitholwe eduze kwenkanyezi eseduze nathi - u-Proxima Centauri. Mhlawumbe, nokho, naphezu kokufana, "imihlaba yesibili" etholakala ezungeze ilanga elingaziwa "ayifani ncamashi" neplanethi yethu, futhi kuphela ekuzivumelaniseni okunjalo kungavela impucuko yezobuchwepheshe eziqhenyayo? Kungenzeka. Nokho, siyazi, ngisho sibheka eMhlabeni, ukuthi ukuphila kuyachuma ngaphansi kwezimo “ezingafanele” kakhulu.
Vele, kunomehluko phakathi kokuphatha nokwakha i-inthanethi nokuthumela i-Tesla ku-Mars. Inkinga yobungqayizivele ingaxazululeka uma singathola endaweni ethile emkhathini iplanethi efana ncamashi noMhlaba, kodwa engenayo impucuko yezobuchwepheshe.
Lapho echaza indida kaFermi, ngezinye izikhathi omunye ukhuluma ngalokho okuthiwa abafokazi ababi. Lokhu kuqondwa ngezindlela ezahlukene. Ngakho-ke laba bafokazi abacatshangelwayo bangase "bathukuthele" ukuthi othile ufuna ukubahlupha, angenele futhi ahluphe - ngakho-ke bazihlukanisa, abaphenduli kuma-barbs futhi abafuni ukuba nento yokwenza nanoma ubani. Kukhona futhi amaphupho abafokazi "ababi ngokwemvelo" abacekela phansi yonke impucuko abahlangana nayo. Bona kanye abathuthuke kakhulu kwezobuchwepheshe abafuni ezinye izimpucuko zigxumele phambili zibe usongo kuzo.
Kuyafaneleka futhi ukukhumbula ukuthi ukuphila emkhathini kubhekene nezinhlekelele ezihlukahlukene esizazi emlandweni weplanethi yethu. Sikhuluma ngokucwebezela kweqhwa, ukusabela okunobudlova kwenkanyezi, ukuqhuma kwama-meteor, ama-asteroid noma izinkanyezi ezinomsila, ukungqubuzana namanye amaplanethi noma ngisho nemisebe. Ngisho noma lezo zenzakalo zingawubulali amagciwane emhlabeni wonke, zingaba ukuphela kwempucuko.
Futhi, abanye musa ngaphandle ukuthi singomunye impucuko yokuqala endaweni yonke - uma kungeyona eyokuqala - nokuthi asikakashintshi ngokwanele ukuze sikwazi ukuxhumana nempucuko ethuthuke kancane eyavela kamuva. Uma lokhu bekunjalo, khona-ke inkinga yokufuna izidalwa ezihlakaniphile emkhathini ongaphandle komhlaba ngabe isangancibiliki. Ngaphezu kwalokho, impucuko “entsha” ecatshangelwayo ibingeke ibe mncane kunathi emashumini ambalwa eminyaka ukuze ikwazi ukuxhumana nayo ukude.
Iwindi nalo alilikhulu kakhulu ngaphambili. Ubuchwepheshe nolwazi lwempucuko yeminyaka eyinkulungwane kungenzeka ukuthi kwakungaqondakali kithi njengoba kunjalo namuhla kumuntu ovela eziMpini Zenkolo. Izimpucuko ezithuthuke kakhulu zingafana nomhlaba wethu nezintuthwane eziphuma esidulini esiseceleni komgwaqo.
Ukuqagela okuthiwa Isilinganiso se-Kardashevoumsebenzi wawo kuwukuba ufanelekele amazinga okucatshangelwa empucuko ngokwenani lamandla abawadlayo. Ngokusho kwakhe, asikabi ngisho nempucuko. thayipha I, okungukuthi, lowo owazi kahle ikhono lokusebenzisa imithombo yamandla yeplanethi yawo siqu. Impucuko uhlobo II ekwazi ukusebenzisa wonke amandla azungeze inkanyezi, isibonelo, ukusebenzisa isakhiwo esibizwa ngokuthi "i-Dyson sphere". Impucuko uhlobo III Ngokwalokhu kuqagela, ithatha wonke amandla omthala. Kodwa-ke, khumbula ukuthi lo mqondo wadalwa njengengxenye yempucuko yeSigaba I esingakaqedwa, kuze kube muva nje uvezwe ngephutha njengempucuko yoHlobo Lwesibili oluya ekwakheni i-Dyson sphere ezungeze inkanyezi yayo (i-starlight anomalies). KIK 8462852).
Ukube bekukhona impucuko yohlobo lwe-II, futhi nangaphezulu kwe-III, besiyoyibona nakanjani futhi sixhumane nathi - abanye bethu bacabanga kanjalo, beqhubeka bephikisana ngokuthi njengoba singaboni noma sazi abafokazi abaphambili abanjalo, azikho nje.. Esinye isikole sencazelo ye-Fermi indida, noma kunjalo, ithi impucuko kulawa mazinga ayibonakali futhi ayibonakali kithi - ingasaphathwa ukuthi, ngokusho kwe-zoo hypothesis yesikhala, ayinaki izidalwa ezinjalo ezingathuthukisiwe.
Ngemuva kokuhlolwa noma ngaphambili?
Ngaphezu kokubonisana ngempucuko ethuthuke kakhulu, indida yeFermi ngezinye izikhathi ichazwa yimiqondo izihlungi zokuziphendukela kwemvelo ekuthuthukisweni kwempucuko. Ngokusho kwabo, kunesiteji senqubo yokuziphendukela kwemvelo esibonakala singenakwenzeka noma singenakwenzeka kakhulu ekuphileni. Kubizwa Isihlungi esihle, okuyimpumelelo enkulu kakhulu emlandweni wokuphila emhlabeni.
Ngokuphathelene nolwazi lwethu lomuntu, asazi kahle ukuthi singemuva, phambili, noma siphakathi kokuhlunga okukhulu. Uma sikwazile ukunqoba lesi sihlungi, kungenzeka kube isithiyo esingenakunqotshwa ezinhlotsheni eziningi zokuphila endaweni eyaziwayo, futhi sihlukile. Ukuhlunga kungenzeka kusukela ekuqaleni, isibonelo, ngesikhathi sokuguqulwa kweseli ye-prokaryotic ibe yingqamuzana ye-eukaryotic eyinkimbinkimbi. Uma bekunjalo, ukuphila emkhathini bekungaba okuvamile, kodwa kube ngamaseli angenawo ama-nuclei. Mhlawumbe singabokuqala nje ukudlula kuHluzo Olukhulu? Lokhu kusibuyisela enkingeni osekukhulunywe ngayo, okuwubunzima bokuxhumana kude.
Kukhona futhi inketho yokuthi impumelelo ekuthuthukisweni isaphambi kwethu. Kwakungekho mbuzo wanoma iyiphi impumelelo ngaleso sikhathi.
Konke lokhu kuyimicabango eqagela kakhulu. Abanye ososayensi banikeza izincazelo ezivamile zokuntuleka kwezimpawu ezingaziwa. U-Alan Stern, usosayensi omkhulu kwa-New Horizons, uthi lendida ingaxazululeka kalula. uqweqwe lweqhwa eliwugqinsiezungeza izilwandle kwezinye izindikimba zasezulwini. Umcwaningi ufinyelela lesi siphetho ngesisekelo sezinto ezisanda kutholwa esimisweni sonozungezilanga: izilwandle zamanzi awuketshezi zilele ngaphansi koqweqwe lwezinyanga eziningi. Kwezinye izimo (iYurophu, i-Enceladus), amanzi ahlangana nomhlabathi onamadwala futhi umsebenzi we-hydrothermal urekhodwa lapho. Lokhu kufanele kube nomthelela ekuqhamukeni kwempilo.
Iqhwa eliwugqinsi lingavikela ukuphila ezimweni ezinobutha emkhathini. Sikhuluma lapha, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ngama-stellar flare aqinile, imithelela ye-asteroid noma imisebe eduze kwe-gas giant. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ingase imele isithiyo ekuthuthukeni okunzima ukusinqoba ngisho nokuphila okucatshangelwayo okuhlakaniphile. Impucuko enjalo yasemanzini ingase ingazi nhlobo indawo ngaphandle koqweqwe lweqhwa. Kunzima ngisho ukuphupha ukweqa imingcele yayo kanye nemvelo yasemanzini - kungaba nzima kakhulu kunathi, thina esingaphandle kwendawo, ngaphandle komkhathi womhlaba, akuyona indawo enobungane kakhulu.
Ingabe sifuna ukuphila noma indawo efanelekayo yokuhlala?
Kunoma yikuphi, thina bantu basemhlabeni kufanele sicabange futhi ngalokho esikufunayo ngempela: ukuphila ngokwayo noma indawo efanele ukuphila okufana neyethu. Uma sicabanga ukuthi asifuni ukulwa nezimpi zasemkhathini nanoma ubani, lezo yizinto ezimbili ezihlukene. Amaplanethi asebenzayo kodwa angenayo impucuko ethuthukisiwe angaba izindawo ezingase zibe amakholoni. Futhi sithola izindawo eziningi ezinjalo ezithembisayo. Sesingavele sisebenzise amathuluzi okubuka ukuze sinqume ukuthi iplanethi isendaweni eyaziwa ngokuthi i-orbit. indawo yokuphila ezungeze inkanyezikungakhathaliseki ukuthi inamatshe futhi ezingeni lokushisa elifanele amanzi awuketshezi. Ngokushesha sizokwazi ukubona ukuthi akhona ngempela yini amanzi lapho, futhi sinqume ukwakheka komkhathi.
Indawo yokuphila ezungeze izinkanyezi kuye ngobukhulu bazo kanye nezibonelo zama-exoplanet afana noMhlaba (ukuxhumanisa okuvundlile - ibanga ukusuka enkanyezini (JA); ukuxhumanisa okuqondile - isisindo senkanyezi (okuhlobene nelanga)).
Ngonyaka odlule, besebenzisa ithuluzi le-ESO HARPS kanye nenani lezibonakude emhlabeni wonke, ososayensi bathola i-exoplanet LHS 1140b njengekhandidethi elaziwa kakhulu ekuphileni. Izungeza i-LHS 1140 ebomvu, iminyaka engama-18 yokukhanya ukusuka eMhlabeni. Izazi zezinkanyezi zilinganisela ukuthi le planethi ineminyaka okungenani eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu ikhona. Baphethe ngokuthi inobubanzi obucishe bube ngu-1,4 1140. km - okuyisilinganiso esiphindwe izikhathi eziyi-XNUMX kunoMhlaba. Izifundo zobunzima nokuminyana kwe-LHS XNUMX b ziphethe ngokuthi kungenzeka idwala elinomgogodla wensimbi ocinene. Kuzwakala ujwayelekile?
Ngaphambidlana, uhlelo lwamaplanethi ayisikhombisa afana noMhlaba azungeze inkanyezi lwaduma. TRAPPIST-1. Alebulwe ngokuthi "b" kuye ku-"h" ngokulandelana kwebanga ukusuka kunkanyezi ephethe. Ukuhlaziya okwenziwa ososayensi futhi kwanyatheliswa kumagazini kaJanuwari weNature Astronomy kuphakamisa ukuthi ngenxa yamazinga okushisa aphakathi nendawo, ukushisa kwamagagasi okumaphakathi, kanye nokuguquguquka kwemisebe ephansi ngokwanele okungaholeli kumphumela obamba ukushisa, abantu abangcono kakhulu kumaplanethi okuhlaleka kuwo “ e. ” izinto kanye “e”. Kungenzeka ukuthi owokuqala umboze lonke ulwandle lwamanzi.
Amaplanethi wesistimu ye-TRAPPIST-1
Ngakho, ukuthola izimo ezikhuthaza ukuphila kubonakala kakade kungenziwa. Ukutholwa kokukude kwempilo ngokwayo, okuselula futhi okungakhiphi amaza kagesi kazibuthe, kuyindaba ehluke ngokuphelele. Kodwa-ke, ososayensi eNyuvesi yaseWashington bahlongoze indlela entsha ehambisana nosesho oseluhlongozwa isikhathi eside lwezinombolo ezinkulu. umoya-mpilo emkhathini weplanethi. Okuhle ngombono we-oxygen ukuthi kunzima ukukhiqiza inani elikhulu lomoya-mpilo ngaphandle kokuphila, kodwa akwaziwa ukuthi zonke izinto eziphilayo zikhiqiza umoya-mpilo yini.
UJoshua Crissansen-Totton wase-University of Washington ephephabhukwini i-Science Advances uthi: “I-biochemistry yokukhiqiza umoya-mpilo iyinkimbinkimbi futhi ingaba yivelakancane. Ukuhlaziya umlando wokuphila eMhlabeni, kwakungenzeka ukuhlonza ingxube yamagesi, ukuba khona kwawo okubonisa ukuba khona kokuphila ngendlela efanayo ne-oxygen. Ekhuluma ngayo ingxube ye-methane ne-carbon dioxide, ngaphandle kwe-carbon monoxide. Kungani kungekho owokugcina? Iqiniso liwukuthi ama-athomu e-carbon kuwo womabili ama-molecule amelela amazinga ahlukene e-oxidation. Kunzima kakhulu ukuthola amazinga afanelekile we-oxidation ngezinqubo ezingezona ezebhayoloji ngaphandle kokwakheka okuhambisanayo kwe-reaction-mediated carbon monoxide. Uma, isibonelo, umthombo we-methane ne-CO2 kunezintaba-mlilo emkhathini, nakanjani zizohambisana ne-carbon monoxide. Ngaphezu kwalokho, le gesi imuncwa ngokushesha futhi kalula ama-microorganisms. Njengoba ikhona emkhathini, ukuba khona kokuphila kufanele kugwenywe.
Ngo-2019, i-NASA ihlela ukwethula James Webb Space Telescopeezokwazi ukufunda ngokunembe kakhudlwana umkhathi wala maplanethi ukuba khona kwamagesi asinda kakhulu njenge-carbon dioxide, i-methane, amanzi nomoya-mpilo.
I-exoplanet yokuqala yatholakala kuma-90s. Kusukela lapho, sesivele siqinisekisile cishe ama-4. ama-exoplanets ezinhlelweni ezingaba ngu-2800, okuhlanganisa cishe namashumi amabili abonakala engakwazi ukuhlalwa. Ngokwakha amathuluzi angcono okubuka le mihlaba, sizokwazi ukwenza ukuqagela okunolwazi mayelana nezimo ezilapho. Futhi okuzovela kuyo kusazobonakala.
