Ngeke yini kube nomsebenzi wendoda? Isikhathi sikaRobo Faber

Ngokocwaningo olwenziwa nguDaren Acemoglu weMassachusetts Institute of Technology kanye noPascual Restrepo waseBoston University, olushicilelwe ngo-Ephreli nonyaka, wonke amarobhothi embonini acekela phansi imisebenzi emithathu kuya kweyisithupha kuwo. Labo ababengaphansi kwenkohliso yokuthi mhlawumbe ngale mishini ezenzakalayo ukuthatha imisebenzi kuyihaba, balahlekelwa yimicabango yabo.

Abacwaningi bafunde ukuthi i-automation yezimboni yayithinta kanjani imakethe yezabasebenzi yase-US ngo-1990-2007. Baphethe ngokuthi irobhothi ngalinye elengeziwe lehlisa ukuqashwa kule ndawo ngo-0,25–0,5% futhi lehlisa amaholo ngo-XNUMX–XNUMX%.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo Isifundo sikaDaren WozaUGlu noPascual I-Restrepo ukunikeza ubufakazi bokuthi i-robotization iyasebenza futhi iyabiza. Ngokwe-International Federation of Robotics, amarobhothi ezimbonini ayizigidi ezingu-1,5 kuya ku-1,75 asetshenziswayo njengamanje, futhi abanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi lelo nani lizophindeka kabili noma likhuphuke ngo-2025.

Ekuqaleni kuka-2017, i-Economist yabika ukuthi ngo-2034, ama-47% emisebenzi azobe esebenza ngokuzenzakalelayo. “Akekho uhulumeni emhlabeni okulungele lokhu,” kuxwayisa izintatheli, zibikezela i-tsunami engokoqobo yoshintsho lwezenhlalo oluyoba umphumela.

Ngokulandelayo, inkampani ebonisana ne-PricewaterhouseCooper, ekubikezelweni kwayo kwemakethe yaseBrithani, ikhuluma ngethemba lokulahlekelwa ngu-30% wemisebenzi eminyakeni eyishumi nanhlanu ezayo, kuze kufike ku-80% ezikhundleni zokuphatha. Isizindalwazi esinikeza umsebenzi iGumtree sithi ocwaningweni lwayo cishe ingxenye yemisebenzi (40%) emakethe yemisebenzi yanamuhla izothathelwa indawo imishini kule minyaka engu-XNUMX ezayo.

Umsebenzi wengqondo uyanyamalala

UDkt Carl Frey waseNyuvesi yase-Oxford, ephepheni elalikhuluma eminyakeni embalwa edlule ngekusasa lokuqashwa, wabikezela ukuthi u-47% wemisebenzi uzobhekana nengozi enkulu yokunyamalala ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kwemisebenzi. Usosayensi wagxekwa ngokwenza ihaba, kodwa akazange awushintshe umqondo wakhe. Njengamanje, inqwaba yedatha nocwaningo kubonakala kungaqinisekisi nje kuphela ukuthi uqinisile, kodwa kungase kubukele phansi umthelela wenguquko yamarobhothi emsebenzini.

Le ncwadi isanda kwephula amarekhodi omhlaba. "Iminyaka Yesibili Yomshini" ka-Erik Brynjolfsson no-Andrew McAfi'goababhala ngokukhula kosongo lwemisebenzi engenamakhono aphansi. “Ubuchwepheshe buhlale bucekela phansi amathuba emisebenzi kodwa buye bawadala. Lokhu bekulokhu kwenzeka eminyakeni engamakhulu amabili edlule,” kusho uBrynjolfsson engxoxweni yakamuva. “Kodwa-ke, kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-90, isilinganiso sabantu abaqashiwe nenani labantu besilokhu sehla ngokushesha. Izinhlaka zikahulumeni kufanele zicabangele lesi sigameko uma zenza inqubomgomo yezomnotho.”

UMcAfee uthe engxoxweni abe nayo noWired ngoFebhuwari nonyaka akuwona umbono wemishini, ukukhuphuka kweSkynet kanye neTerminator okumkhathazayo, kodwa umbono wokukhuphuka kwabantu abaphelelwa umsebenzi ngezinga elishaqisayo. ngokusebenzisa amarobhothi kanye ne-automation. Isazi sezomnotho sidonsela ukunaka emsebenzini womzimba, kodwa emakethe yezabasebenzi ekhulayo kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-80. inkinga yokunciphisa inani labasebenzi abamhlophe okuthi, okungenani ngaphansi kwezimo zaseMelika, bakha isigaba esiphakathi. Futhi uma kukhona umsebenzi onjalo, khona-ke noma iholo liphansi kakhulu, noma iholo liphakeme kakhulu kunesilinganiso.

Uma sibheka ubuchwepheshe obuthuthukiswayo njengamanje, uhlu lwemisebenzi okufanele iqedwe lungaba lude ngokumangalisayo. Ngoba ingabe silindele, ngokwesibonelo, ukuthi usongo luzothinta? Abaqhubi bekhamera ye-TV? Phakathi naleso sikhathi, inkampani yaseJalimane i-KUKA isivele ihlola amarobhothi angeke athathe indawo yabaqhubi kuphela, kodwa futhi abhale "okungcono futhi azinzile". Izimoto ezinamakhamera sezisetshenziswa kumabonakude kwezinye izindawo.

Emisebenzini efana nodokotela wamazinyo, umlingisi, umqeqeshi, isicishamlilo noma umpristi, kuzoba nzima kakhulu ukuthola ozongena esikhundleni serobhothi. Okungenani kubonakala kunjalo kuze kube manje. Kodwa-ke, lokhu akubandakanyiwe ngokuphelele esikhathini esizayo, njengoba imishini noma izinhlelo sezivele zidaliwe ezifeza imisebenzi yazo okungenani ngokwengxenye. Bathi emafemini ezimoto amarobhothi awasoze athatha indawo yabantu abasezikhundleni ezithile. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, abenzi be-robot njengenkampani yaseJapane i-Yaskawa, eyake yakha umshini wokwakha izakhiwo ezivela ezitini ze-Lego, banombono ohlukile kule ndaba. Njengoba kwenzeka, ungakwazi ngisho nokushintsha izikhundla amazinga okuphatha.

Irobhothi lezemfundo laseNingizimu Korea i-Engkey

Isibonelo, abasebenzi be-Deep Knowledge banerobhothi elifakwe ubuhlakani bokwenziwa njengomunye wabaphathi babo. Ilungu Lebhodi Lokuqondisa ngoba kukhona i-Vital (od) ethile - noma kunalokho, isofthiwe elungiselelwe ukuhlaziya izitayela zokumaketha ngokusekelwe kudatha enikeziwe. Ngokungafani nabantu, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa abunayo imizwelo kanye nokuqondisisa futhi buthembele kuphela kudatha enikeziwe, ibala ukuba nokwenzeka kwezimo ezithile (kanye nemiphumela yebhizinisi).

Osozimali? Kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-80s, imisebenzi yabadayisi besitoko kanye nabathengisi ithathwe ama-algorithms ayinkimbinkimbi asebenza kahle kunabantu ekubambeni umehluko wentengo yesitoko nokwenza imali ngayo.

Abameli? Kungani kungenjalo? Inkampani yabameli yaseMelika i-BakerHostetler yaba ngeyokuqala emhlabeni ukuqasha ummeli wamarobhothi osebenza nge-AI ngonyaka odlule. Umshini obizwa nge-Ross, othuthukiswe ngabakwa-IBM, osebenza ngokuqothuka kwezinkampani amahora angama-24 ngosuku - wawunabameli ababalelwa ku-XNUMX abasebenza kuwo.

othisha? ENingizimu Korea, lapho othisha besiNgisi okunzima khona ukubathola, amarobhothi okuqala okufundisa afundisa ulimi lwesiShakespeare. Uhlelo lokulinga lolu hlelo lwethulwa ezikoleni zamabanga aphansi. Ngo-2013, imishini yokufunda izilimi zakwa-Engkey yaqala ukutholakala ezikoleni nasezinkulisa imbala, ilawulwa kude othisha besiNgisi bakwamanye amazwe.

Izimboni Ezingezayo kanye Nokuntuleka Kwemisebenzi Emazweni Omhlaba Wesithathu

Ngokusho kwe-International Federation of Robotics (IFR), idayiswe emhlabeni wonke ngo-2013. Izinkulungwane ezingama-179 zamarobhothi ezimboni.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi uguquko lwezimboni ezishintshayo, oluhlanganiswe nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bokuphrinta be-3D nokwengeza (okuhlobene nokuphrinta kwe-3D nokuphuma kwayo), kungaholela ekulahlekeni kwemisebenzi ngisho nasemazweni abizwa ngokuthi. izwe lesithathu elinezisebenzi ezishibhile. Yilapho lapho iminyaka bethunga khona, isibonelo, izicathulo zezemidlalo zezinkampani zomhlaba ezaziwayo. Manje, isibonelo, izicathulo ze-Nike Flyknit zenziwa ngokuzenzakalelayo ngokuphelele, kusukela ezingxenyeni eziphrintiwe ze-3D, ezibe zithungwa ngemicu enemibala eminingi kuma-robotic looms, okusikhumbuza ama-workshops amadala - kodwa ngaphandle kwabantu. Ngokuzenzakalela okunjalo, ukusondela kwesitshalo kumthengi kuqala ukucatshangelwa ukuze kuncishiswe izindleko zokuthumela. Akumangalisi ukuthi i-Adidas yaseJalimane ikhiqiza amamodeli ayo e-Primeknit, ngokusekelwe kubuchwepheshe obufanayo nezicathulo ze-Nike ezishiwo ngenhla, ezweni lakubo, hhayi endaweni ethile e-Asia Ephakathi. Ukumane uthwebule imisebenzi ezimbonini zase-Asia akukuniki imisebenzi eminingi e-Germany. Imboni yamarobhothi ayidingi abasebenzi abaningi.

Izinguquko esakhiweni sokuqashwa kwabantu namarobhothi ngo-2009-2013.

Inkampani yomhlaziyi i-Boston Consulting Group yamemezela ngo-2012 ukuthi, ngenxa ye-automation, ubuchwepheshe be-robotic, kanye nentuthuko ekukhiqizeni okungeziwe, ngo-30 u-2020% wezinto ezithengwa e-US ezivela e-China zingenziwa e-US. Kuwuphawu lwezikhathi lapho inkampani yaseJapan iMori Seiki ivula imboni yezinsimbi zezimoto izihlanganisele eCalifornia. Nokho, kukhona, yiqiniso, abekho abasebenzi. Imishini yenza imishini, futhi ngokusobala awudingi ngisho nokukhanyisa izibani kule mboni.

Mhlawumbe akuwona neze ukuphela komsebenzi, kodwa kubukeka sengathi ukuphela komsebenzi kubantu abaningi. Izibikezelo eziningi kangaka mhlawumbe zicacile. Ochwepheshe sebeqala ukukhuluma ngazwi linye - ingxenye enkulu yemakethe yezabasebenzi izonyamalala emashumini eminyaka azayo. Olunye uhlangothi lwalezi zibikezelo imiphumela yezenhlalo. Kunzima kakhulu ukuzicabanga. Abantu abaningi basacabanga ukuthi ukufundela ubumeli noma ukubhanga kuyithikithi elihle lomsebenzi omuhle kanye nempilo enhle. Akekho obatshela ukuthi baphinde bacabange.

Ukukhiqizwa kwezicathulo ze-Nike Flyknit

Umbono ongenathemba wemakethe yezemisebenzi, kancane kancane ithathelwa indawo amarobhothi, okungenani emazweni athuthukile, akusho ngempela ukwehla kwezinga lokuphila kanye nokuswela. Lapho incane futhi iyancipha - esikhundleni sayo, kufanele akhokhe izintela. Mhlawumbe hhayi irobhothi impela, kodwa ngokuqinisekile inkampani elisebenzisayo. Abantu abaningi bacabanga ngale ndlela, isibonelo, uBill Gates, umsunguli weMicrosoft.

Lokhu bekuzovumela ukuthi bonke abathathwe emsebenzini ngemishini baphile ezingeni elihloniphekile - i.e. ukuthenga lokho amarobhothi abasebenzelayo ukukhiqiza.