Ukuzinza kwethu okuncane

Ilanga lihlala liphuma empumalanga, izinkathi zonyaka zishintsha njalo, kunezinsuku ezingama-365 noma ezingama-366 ngonyaka, ubusika buyabanda, ihlobo lifudumele… Kuyisicefe. Kodwa masijabulele lesi sithukuthezi! Okokuqala, ngeke kuhlale unomphela. Okwesibili, ukuzinza kwethu okuncane kuyindaba ekhethekile nesikhashana kuphela esimisweni sonozungezilanga esinesiphithiphithi sisonke.

Ukuhamba kwamaplanethi, izinyanga kanye nazo zonke ezinye izinto ezisesimisweni sonozungezilanga kubonakala kuhlelekile futhi kuyabikezelwa. Kodwa uma kunjalo, uyichaza kanjani yonke imigodi esiyibona eNyangeni neziningi zezinkanyezi ezisesimisweni sethu? Ziningi futhi eMhlabeni, kodwa njengoba sinomkhathi, futhi ngokuguguleka kwawo, izimila kanye namanzi, asiwuboni ungqimba lomhlaba ngokucacile njengakwezinye izindawo.

Uma isimiso sonozungezilanga sasihlanganisa amaphuzu abalulekile asebenza kuphela ezimisweni ze-Newtonian, ngakho-ke, ukwazi ukuma okuqondile kanye nesivinini seLanga nawo wonke amaplanethi, besingakwazi ukunquma indawo akuyo nganoma isiphi isikhathi esikhathini esizayo. Ngeshwa, iqiniso lihlukile ku-Newton's Dynamics.

uvemvane lwesikhala

Intuthuko enkulu yesayensi yemvelo yaqala ngokunembile ngemizamo yokuchaza imizimba yendawo yonke. Ukutholwa okuwujuqu okuchaza imithetho yokunyakaza kweplanethi kwenziwa "obaba abasungula" besayensi yezinkanyezi yesimanje, izibalo kanye ne-physics - Copernicus, UGalileo, I-Kepler i Newton. Nokho, nakuba imishini yezindikimba ezimbili zasezulwini ezisebenzisanayo ngaphansi kwethonya lamandla adonsela phansi kwaziwa kahle, ukwengezwa kwento yesithathu (lokho okubizwa ngokuthi inkinga yemizimba emithathu) kwenza inkinga ibe nzima kangangokuthi singakwazi ukuyixazulula ngokuhlaziya.

Singabikezela ukunyakaza koMhlaba, sithi, eminyakeni eyisigidigidi ezayo? Noma, ngamanye amazwi: ingabe isimiso sonozungezilanga sizinzile? Ososayensi baye bazama ukuphendula lo mbuzo izizukulwane ngezizukulwane. Imiphumela yokuqala abayitholile Peter Simon kusukela I-Laplace i UJoseph Louis I-Lagrange, ngokungangabazeki wasikisela impendulo eyakhayo.

Ekupheleni kwekhulu lesi-XNUMX, ukuxazulula inkinga yokuzinza kwesimiso sonozungezilanga kwakungenye yezinselelo ezinkulu zesayensi. inkosi yaseSweden Oscar II, waze wasungula indondo ekhethekile yalowo oxazulula le nkinga. Yatholwa ngo-1887 isazi sezibalo saseFrance U-Henri Poincare. Kodwa-ke, ubufakazi bakhe bokuthi izindlela zokuphazamisa angeke ziholele ekuxazululeni okulungile akubhekwa njengokuqinisekile.

Wakha izisekelo zethiyori yezibalo zokuzinza kokunyakaza. Alexander M. Lapunovowayezibuza ukuthi ibanga eliphakathi kwemizila emibili esondelene ohlelweni lwezinxushunxushu likhula ngokushesha kangakanani ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lapho engxenyeni yesibili yekhulu lamashumi amabili. Edward Lorenz, isazi sesimo sezulu e-Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sakha imodeli eyenziwe lula yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu encike kuphela ezicini eziyishumi nambili, yayingahlobene ngokuqondile nokuhamba kwemizimba esimisweni sonozungezilanga. Ephepheni lakhe lika-1963, u-Edward Lorenz wabonisa ukuthi ushintsho oluncane kudatha yokufaka lubangela ukuziphatha okuhluke ngokuphelele kwesistimu. Lesi sakhiwo, kamuva esaziwa ngokuthi "umphumela wovemvane", kwavela ukuthi sijwayelekile kumasistimu amaningi aguquguqukayo asetshenziselwa ukumodela izenzakalo ezihlukahlukene ku-physics, chemistry noma biology.

Umthombo wesiphithiphithi ezinhlelweni eziguquguqukayo amandla ohlelo olufanayo asebenza emigwaqweni elandelanayo. Lapho imizimba eminingi ohlelweni, isiyaluyalu siyanda. Ku-Solar System, ngenxa yokungalingani okukhulu kwenqwaba yazo zonke izingxenye uma kuqhathaniswa neLanga, ukusebenzisana kwalezi zingxenye nenkanyezi kubusa, ngakho izinga lesiphithiphithi esivezwe kuma-exponents e-Lyapunov akufanele libe likhulu. Kodwa futhi, ngokwezibalo zikaLorentz, akufanele simangale ngomcabango wesimo esibucayi sesimiso sonozungezilanga. Kungamangaza ukube uhlelo olunamazinga amaningi kangaka enkululeko luvamile.

Eminyakeni eyishumi edlule UJacques Lascar e-Paris Observatory, wenza izifaniso zama-computer ezingaphezu kwenkulungwane zokunyakaza kwamaplanethi. Kuzo ngayinye yazo, izimo zokuqala zazihluke kancane. Ukumodela kukhombisa ukuthi akukho okubi kakhulu okuzokwenzeka kithi eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingama-40 ezayo, kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ku-1-2% wamacala kungenzeka. ukuqedwa okuphelele kwesimiso sonozungezilanga. Siphinde sibe nale minyaka eyizigidi ezingama-40 ngaphansi kombandela wokuthi isivakashi esingalindelekile, isici noma into entsha enganakiwe okwamanje ingaveli.

Izibalo zibonisa, isibonelo, ukuthi phakathi neminyaka eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5 umjikelezo weMercury (iplanethi yokuqala evela eLangeni) uzoshintsha, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yethonya le-Jupiter. Lokhu kungase kuholele ku- Umhlaba ungqubuzana neMars noma iMercury impela. Uma sifaka eyodwa yamasethi edatha, ngalinye liqukethe iminyaka eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1,3. I-Mercury ingase iwele elangeni. Kwesinye sekulingisa, kwavela ukuthi ngemva kweminyaka eyizigidi ezingu-820 I-Mars izoxoshwa ohlelweni, futhi ngemva kweminyaka eyizigidi ezingu-40 izofika ukungqubuzana kweMercury neVenus.

Ucwaningo lwe-dynamics Yohlelo lwethu luka-Lascar nethimba lakhe lulinganisele isikhathi se-Lapunov (okungukuthi, isikhathi lapho inkambo yenqubo enikeziwe ingabikezelwa ngokunembile) kulo lonke Uhlelo eminyakeni eyizigidi ezi-5.

Kuvela ukuthi iphutha elingu-1 km kuphela ekunqumeni indawo yokuqala yeplanethi lingakhuphuka libe yiyunithi engu-1 yezinkanyezi eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingu-95. Noma besazi idatha yokuqala Yohlelo ngokunemba okuphezulu ngokunganaki, kodwa okunomkhawulo, besingeke sikwazi ukubikezela ukuziphatha kwayo nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Ukwembula ikusasa Lohlelo, elinesiphithiphithi, sidinga ukwazi idatha yoqobo ngokunemba okungapheli, okungenakwenzeka.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, asazi ngokuqinisekile. ingqikithi yamandla esimiso sonozungezilanga. Kodwa ngisho nokucabangela yonke imiphumela, okuhlanganisa izilinganiso ze-relativistic nezinembe kakhudlwana, ngeke siguqule isimo sesiyaluyalu sesimiso sonozungezilanga futhi ngeke sikwazi ukubikezela ukuziphatha nesimo saso nganoma isiphi isikhathi.

Kungenzeka noma yini

Ngakho, isimiso sonozungezilanga sinesiphithiphithi, yilokho kuphela. Lesi sitatimende sisho ukuthi asikwazi ukubikezela umkhondo woMhlaba ngale, ake sithi, iminyaka eyizigidi eziyi-100. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isistimu yelanga ngokungangabazeki ihlala izinzile njengesakhiwo okwamanje, njengoba ukuphambuka okuncane kwemingcele ebonisa izindlela zamaplanethi kuholela emizileni ehlukene, kodwa enezakhiwo eziseduze. Ngakho-ke mancane amathuba okuthi izobhidlika ezinkulungwaneni zeminyaka ezizayo.

Yiqiniso, kungase kube khona izici ezintsha ezishiwo kakade ezinganakwa ezibalweni ezingenhla. Isibonelo, uhlelo luthatha iminyaka eyizigidi ezingu-250 ukuqedela ukuzungeza phakathi nendawo yomthala i-Milky Way. Lesi sinyathelo sinemiphumela. Isimo sendawo esishintshayo siphazamisa ibhalansi ethambile phakathi kweLanga nezinye izinto. Lokhu, yiqiniso, akukwazi ukubikezelwa, kodwa kwenzeka ukuthi ukungalingani okunjalo kuholela ekwandeni komphumela. umsebenzi wenkanyezi enomsila. Lezi zinto zindiza zibheke elangeni kaningi kunokujwayelekile. Lokhu kwandisa ingozi yokushayisana kwabo noMhlaba.

Inkanyezi ngemva kweminyaka eyizigidi ezi-4 Gcwalisa 710 kuzoba iminyaka engu-1,1 ukukhanya ukusuka eLangeni, okungase kuphazamise ukuzungeza kwezinto ngaphakathi I-Ort Cloud kanye nokwandisa amathuba okuba inkanyezi enomsila ingqubuzane neplanethi eyodwa yangaphakathi yesimiso sonozungezilanga.

Ososayensi bathembele emininingwaneni yomlando futhi, befinyelela iziphetho zezibalo kubo, babikezela ukuthi, cishe eminyakeni eyisigamu sesigidi. i-meteor eshaya phansi 1 km ububanzi, okubangela inhlekelele yendawo yonke. Ngokulandelayo, ngokombono weminyaka eyizigidi eziyi-100, i-meteorite kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ngosayizi uma iqhathaniswa naleyo eyabangela ukushabalala kweCretaceous eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingama-65 edlule.

Kuze kufike eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingu-500-600, kufanele ulinde isikhathi eside ngangokunokwenzeka (futhi, ngokusekelwe kudatha etholakalayo nezibalo) ukukhanya noma ukuqhuma kwe-supernova hyperenergy. Ebangeni elinjalo, imisebe ingaba nomthelela ongqimbeni lwe-ozone yoMhlaba futhi ibangele ukushabalala okukhulu okufana nokushabalala kwe-Ordovician - uma kuphela i-hypothesis mayelana nalokhu ilungile. Kodwa-ke, imisebe ekhishwayo kufanele iqondiswe ngqo eMhlabeni ukuze ikwazi ukudala noma yimuphi umonakalo lapha.

Ngakho-ke masijabule ngokuphindaphinda nokusimama okuncane komhlaba esiwubonayo nesiphila kuwo. Izibalo, izibalo kanye namathuba amgcina ematasa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ngenhlanhla, lolu hambo olude lungaphezu kwamandla ethu.