I-DIY esikalini seplanethi

Kusukela ekutshalweni kwamahlathi esikalini sezwekazi kuya ekufakweni kwemvula okuzenzela, ososayensi sebeqalile ukuphakamisa, ukuhlola, futhi kwezinye izimo basebenzise amaphrojekthi amakhulu e-geoengineering ukuze aguqule ngokuphawulekayo iplanethi (1). Lawa maphrojekthi aklanyelwe ukuxazulula izinkinga zomhlaba ezifana nogwadule, isomiso noma i-carbon dioxide eningi emkhathini, kodwa ayinkinga ngokwawo.

Umbono wakamuva omuhle wokuhlehlisa imiphumela yokufudumala komhlaba iduduza iplanethi yethu emzileni oqhelelene neLanga. Efilimini esanda kukhishwa yesayensi yesayensi yamaShayina ethi, Wandering Earth, isintu sishintsha umjikelezo woMhlaba ngama-thrusters amakhulu ukuze sigweme ukwanda (2).

Ingabe kungenzeka okufanayo? Ochwepheshe babebambe iqhaza ekubaleni, imiphumela yakhona eyethusayo. Uma, ngokwesibonelo, kusetshenziswe izinjini zerokhethi ze-SpaceX's Falcon Heavy, bekuzothatha "ukwethulwa" kwamandla agcwele ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-300 ukuze uMhlaba ungene emzileni we-Martian, kuyilapho izinto eziningi zomhlaba zizosetshenziselwa ukwakha namandla. Lokhu. Isebenza kahle kakhulu injini ye-ion ebekwe emzileni ozungeza umhlaba futhi ngandlela thize ixhunywe neplanethi - izosebenzisa u-13% wesisindo soMhlaba ukuze idlulisele ama-87% asele kwenye i-orbit. Ngakho mhlawumbe? Kuzodingeka ukuthi iphindwe izikhathi ezingamashumi amabili ububanzi boMhlaba, futhi uhambo lokuya emzileni we-Martian lusazothatha ... iminyaka eyisigidigidi.

2. Uhlaka lwefilimu ethi "The Wandering Earth"

Ngakho-ke, kubonakala sengathi iphrojekthi "yokusunduza" Umhlaba ku-orbit ebandayo kufanele ihlehliswe unomphela esikhathini esizayo. Kunalokho, iphrojekthi eyodwa evele iqhubeka ezindaweni ezingaphezu kweyodwa, ukwakhiwa kwezithiyo eziluhlaza ezindaweni ezinkulu zeplanethi. Zakhiwe izitshalo zendabuko futhi zitshalwa emaphethelweni ogwadule ukuze kunqandwe ukuqhubeka kogwadule. Izindonga ezimbili ezinkulu kunazo zonke zaziwa ngegama lesiNgisi eChina, okuyi-4500 km ezama ukuqukatha ukusabalala kogwadule lwaseGobi, futhi udonga olukhulu oluluhlaza e-Afrika (3), kufika ku-8 km emngceleni weSahara.

3. Ukutholakala kweSahara e-Afrika

Nokho, ngisho nezilinganiso ezinethemba elikhulu zibonisa ukuthi sizodinga okungenani amahektha ayizigidi eziyinkulungwane zamahlathi engeziwe ukuze aqukathe imiphumela yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke ngokunciphisa inani elidingekayo le-CO2. Le ndawo ilingana neCanada.

Ngokusho kososayensi bePotsdam Institute for Climatic Research, ukutshala izihlahla nakho kunomthelela olinganiselwe esimweni sezulu futhi kuphakamisa ukungaqiniseki ngokuthi kusebenza kahle yini. Abathandi be-Geoengineering bafuna izindlela eziqinile.

Ukuvimbela ilanga ngokumpunga

I-Technique yahlongozwa eminyakeni eminingi edlule ukufafaza kwezinhlanganisela ezimuncu emkhathini, eyaziwa nangokuthi isifinyezo I-SRM (ukulawulwa kwemisebe yelanga) ukuphindaphinda kwezimo ezenzeka phakathi nokuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo okukhulu okukhulula lezi zinto ku-stratosphere (4). Lokhu kunomthelela, phakathi kokunye, ekwakhekeni kwamafu kanye nokuncipha kwemisebe yelanga efinyelela emhlabeni. Ososayensi baye bafakazela, isibonelo, ukuthi mkhulu I-Pinatubo ePhilippines, kwaholela ngo-1991 ekwehleni kwezinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke okungaba ngu-0,5°C okungenani phakathi neminyaka emibili.

4. Umphumela wama-aerosols esibabule

Eqinisweni, imboni yethu, ebilokhu ikhipha isamba esikhulu se-sulphur dioxide njengesingcolisi amashumi eminyaka, sekuyisikhathi eside inesandla ekwehliseni ukudluliswa kokukhanya kwelanga. kulinganiselwa ukuthi lezi zinto ezingcolisayo ezilinganisweni zokushisa zinikeza cishe ama-watts angu-0,4 "wokukhanya" kuMhlaba ngemitha yesikwele. Nokho, ukungcola esikukhiqizayo nge-carbon dioxide ne-sulfuric acid akuhlali njalo.

Lezi zinto azikhuphuki ku-stratosphere, lapho zingakha khona ifilimu ephikisana nelanga unomphela. Abacwaningi balinganisela ukuthi ukuze kulinganiswe umphumela wokugxilisa ingqondo emkhathini woMhlaba, okungenani amathani ayizigidi ezi-5 noma ngaphezulu kuzodingeka aphonswe ku-stratosphere.₂ nezinye izinto. Abasekeli bale ndlela, njengoJustin McClellan we-Aurora Flight Sciences eMassachusetts, balinganisela ukuthi izindleko zokuhlinza okunjalo zingaba cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-10 ngonyaka - inani elikhulu, kodwa elinganele ukubhubhisa isintu unomphela.

Ngeshwa, indlela yesibabule inesinye isici. Ukupholisa kusebenza kahle ezindaweni ezifudumele. Esifundeni sezigxobo - cishe akukho. Ngakho-ke, njengoba ungase uqagele, inqubo yokuncibilika kweqhwa nokukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle ayikwazi ukumiswa ngale ndlela, futhi indaba yokulahlekelwa okuvela ekukhukhuleni kwezindawo ezisogwini eziphansi iyohlala iyingozi yangempela.

Muva nje, ososayensi base-Harvard benze ucwaningo lokwethula imizila ye-aerosol endaweni ephakeme engamakhilomitha angama-20 - ayanele ukuba nomthelela omkhulu ku-stratosphere Yomhlaba. Bona (i-SCOPEx) benziwa ngebhaluni. I-aerosol iqukethe i-w.i. ama-sulfate, adala inkungu ebonisa ukukhanya kwelanga. Lona omunye wemiklamo eminingi ye-geoengineering esezingeni elilinganiselwe eyenziwa emhlabeni wethu ngamanani amangalisayo.

Izambulela zesikhala kanye nokwanda kwe-albedo yoMhlaba

Phakathi kwamanye amaphrojekthi alolu hlobo, umbono uheha ukunakwa ukwethulwa kwesambulela esikhulu emkhathini. Lokhu kunganciphisa inani lemisebe yelanga efika eMhlabeni. Lo mbono usunamashumi eminyaka ukhona, kodwa manje usesigabeni sokuthuthukiswa kokudala.

I-athikili eyanyatheliswa ngo-2018 kujenali ye-Aerospace Technology and Management ichaza iphrojekthi, eqanjwa ngababhali. Ngokuvumelana nakho, kuhlelwe ukubeka iribhoni encane ebanzi ye-carbon fiber endaweni ye-Lagrange, okuyindawo ezinzile ohlelweni oluyinkimbinkimbi lokusebenzisana kwamandla adonsela phansi phakathi koMhlaba, iNyanga kanye neLanga. Iqabunga livimba kuphela ingxenye encane yemisebe yelanga, kodwa lokho kungase kube okwanele ukuletha amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke abe ngaphansi komkhawulo ongu-1,5°C obekwe yi-International Climate Panel.

Banikeza umbono ofanayo izibuko zasemkhathini ezinkulu. Zahlongozwa ekuqaleni komhla woku-1 yisazi sezinkanyezi u-Lowell Wood we-Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory e-California. Ukuze lo mqondo usebenze, ukukhanya kufanele kuwele okungenani ku-1,6% wokukhanya kwelanga, futhi izibuko kufanele zibe nendawo engu-XNUMX million km².².

Abanye bafuna ukuvimba ilanga ngokuvuselela futhi ngenxa yalokho basebenzise inqubo eyaziwa ngokuthi ifu imbewu. "Imbewu" iyadingeka ukukhiqiza amaconsi. Ngokwemvelo, amaconsi amanzi akha azungeze izinhlayiya zothuli, impova, usawoti wasolwandle, ngisho namagciwane. Kuyaziwa ukuthi amakhemikhali afana ne-iodide esiliva noma iqhwa elomile angasetshenziswa kulokhu. Lokhu kungenzeka ngalezo zindlela esezaziwa futhi esezisetshenzisiwe. amafu akhanya futhi abe mhlophe, eyahlongozwa isazi sesayensi yemvelo uJohn Latham ngo-1990. I-Sea Cloud Lightning Project eNyuvesi yaseWashington e-Seattle ihlongoza ukuzuza umphumela wokufiphaza ngokufafaza amanzi olwandle emafwini phezu kolwandle.

Ezinye iziphakamiso eziphawulekayo ukwanda kwe-albedo yomhlaba (okungukuthi, isilinganiso semisebe ebonisiwe emisebeni yesigameko) siyasebenza nasekupendeni izindlu ezimhlophe, ukutshala izitshalo ezikhanyayo, futhi mhlawumbe nokubeka amashidi akhanyayo ogwadule.

Sisanda kuchaza amasu okumunca ayingxenye ye-geoengineering arsenal e-MT. Ngokuvamile awekho emhlabeni jikelele, nakuba uma inani lawo likhuphuka, imiphumela ingaba emhlabeni jikelele. Nokho, kuseshwa izindlela ezifanele igama le-geoengineering. Ukususwa kwe-CO₂ ngokusho kwabanye, kungase kudlule emkhathini ukutshala izilwandleokuyinto, ngemva kwakho konke, ingenye yemizila ye-carbon eyinhloko emhlabeni wethu, enesibopho sokunciphisa cishe ama-30% e-CO.₂. Umqondo uwukuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kwazo.

Izindlela ezimbili ezibaluleke kakhulu ukuvundisa ulwandle ngensimbi ne-calcium. Lokhu kukhuthaza ukukhula kwe-phytoplankton, emunca i-carbon dioxide emkhathini futhi isize ukuyibeka phansi. Ukwengezwa kwama-calcium compounds kuzodala ukusabela nge-CO.₂ esevele encibilikisiwe olwandle kanye nokwakheka kwama-ion e-bicarbonate, ngaleyo ndlela kunciphisa i-asidi yolwandle futhi awenze amukele ukumunca i-CO eyengeziwe.₂.

Imibono evela ku-Exxon Stables

Abaxhasi abakhulu bocwaningo lwe-geoengineering yi-Heartland Institute, i-Hoover Institution, ne-American Enterprise Institute, bonke abasebenzela imboni kawoyela negesi. Ngakho-ke, imiqondo ye-geoengineering ivamise ukugxekwa abagqugquzeli bokunciphisa i-carbon, ngokombono wabo, baphambukisa ukunaka engqikithini yenkinga. Ngaphandle kwalokho ukusetshenziswa kwe-geoengineering ngaphandle kokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi kwenza isintu sincike kulezi zindlela ngaphandle kokuxazulula inkinga yangempela.

Inkampani kawoyela i-ExxonMobil yaziwa ngamaphrojekthi ayo omhlaba anesibindi kusukela ngawo-90. Ngaphezu kokuvundisa ulwandle ngensimbi kanye nokwakha ukuvikelwa kwelanga okungama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-10 emkhathini, uphinde wahlongoza ukwenza mhlophe ulwandle ngokufaka izendlalelo ezikhanyayo, igwebu, amapulatifomu antantayo, noma ezinye "izinto ezibonisayo" emanzini. Enye indlela kwakuwukudonsa izintaba zeqhwa zase-Arctic ukuze zehlise i-latitude ukuze ubumhlophe beqhwa buveze imisebe yelanga. Yiqiniso, ingozi yokwanda okukhulu kokungcoliswa kolwandle yaphawuleka ngokushesha, ingasaphathwa eyezindleko ezinkulu.

Ochwepheshe be-Exxon baphinde bahlongoza ukusebenzisa amaphampu amakhulu ukuhambisa amanzi ngaphansi kweqhwa lolwandle i-Antarctica bese ewafafaza emkhathini ukuze awe njengeqhwa noma izinhlayiya zeqhwa eshidini leqhwa eliseMpumalanga ye-Antarctic. Abasekeli bathi uma amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu ngonyaka empontshwa ngale ndlela, khona-ke kuzoba namamitha angu-0,3 ngaphezulu kweqhwa eqhweni, noma kunjalo, ngenxa yezindleko ezinkulu zamandla, le phrojekthi ayizange iphinde ikhulunywe.

Omunye umbono ovela ezitebeleni ze-Exxon amabhaluni e-aluminium agcwele ifilimu elincane le-helium ku-stratosphere, abekwe amakhilomitha ayi-100 ngaphezu komhlaba ukuze asakaze ukukhanya kwelanga. Kuye kwahlongozwa nokuthi kusheshiswe ukuhamba kwamanzi olwandle olwandle ngokulawula usawoti kwezinye izindawo ezibalulekile, njengeNyakatho ye-Atlantic. Ukuze amanzi abe nosawoti omningi, kwakucatshangelwa, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ukulondolozwa kweqhwa laseGreenland, okwakuzovimbela ukuncibilika kwalo ngokushesha. Nokho, umphumela oseceleni wokupholisa iNyakatho ye-Atlantic kungaba ukupholisa iYurophu, okwenza kube nzima ngabantu ukuba baphile. Into encane.

Idatha inikeziwe I-Geoengineering Monitor - iphrojekthi ehlanganyelwe ye-Biofuelwatch, ETC Group kanye ne-Heinrich Boell Foundation - ikhombisa ukuthi maningi amaphrojekthi we-geoengineering aseqalisiwe emhlabeni jikelele (5). Imephu ibonisa ukuthi iyasebenza, iqediwe futhi ilahliwe. Kubonakala sengathi akukabikho ukuphathwa okudidiyelwe kwamazwe ngamazwe kwalo msebenzi. Ngakho-ke akuyona i-geoengineering yomhlaba wonke. Okuningi njenge-hardware.

5. Imephu yamaphrojekthi we-geoengineering ngokusho kwesayithi map.geoengineeringmonitor.org

Iningi lamaphrojekthi, angaphezu kwe-190, aseqalisiwe. ukususwa kwe-carbon, okungukuthi i-carbon capture and storage (CCS), futhi cishe 80 - ukuthunjwa kwe-carbon, ukusetshenziswa nokugcinwa (, KUSS). Kube namaphrojekthi wokuvundisa olwandle angama-35 kanye namaphrojekthi angaphezu kwama-20 we-stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Ohlwini lwe-Geoengineering Monitor, siphinde sithole imisebenzi ehlobene namafu. Inombolo enkulu yamaphrojekthi idalelwe ukuguqulwa kwesimo sezulu. Idatha ibonisa ukuthi kube nemicimbi engu-222 ehlotshaniswa nokwenyuka kwemvula nemicimbi engu-71 ehambisana nokuncipha kwemvula.

Izazi ziyaqhubeka nokuphikisana

Ngaso sonke isikhathi, umdlandla wabasunguli bokuthuthukiswa kwezimo zezulu, umkhathi kanye nezilwandle emhlabeni wonke uphakamisa imibuzo: ingabe sazi ngokwanele ukuba sizinikele ku-geoengineering ngaphandle kokwesaba? Kuthiwani uma, ngokwesibonelo, ukutshala kwamafu ngezinga elikhulu kushintsha ukugeleza kwamanzi futhi kubambezele inkathi yezimvula eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia? Kuthiwani ngezitshalo zelayisi? Kuthiwani uma, ngokwesibonelo, ukulahla amathani ensimbi olwandle kuqothula izinhlanzi ezisogwini lwaseChile?

olwandle, yaqala ukusetshenziswa ngasogwini lwaseBritish Columbia eNyakatho Melika ngo-2012, yahlehla ngokushesha ngezimbali ezinkulu ze-algal. Ngaphambilini ngo-2008, amazwe angu-191 e-UN agunyaza ukuvinjelwa kokuvundiswa kolwandle ngenxa yokwesaba imiphumela engemihle engaziwa, izinguquko ezingase zibe khona ohlelweni lokudla, noma ukwakhiwa kwezindawo ezinomoya-mpilo omncane emanzini. Ngo-Okthoba 2018, ama-NGO angaphezu kwekhulu agxeka i-geoengineering ngokuthi "iyingozi, akudingekile futhi ingenabulungiswa".

Njengoba kunjalo ngokwelashwa kanye nezidakamizwa eziningi, i-geoengineering iyacasula okuqhamuka uma udla imishanguzookuzodinga izinyathelo ezihlukene zokuzivimba. Njengoba uBrad Plumer asho ku-Washington Post, uma amaphrojekthi we-geoengineering eseqalile, kunzima ukuwamisa. Uma, ngokwesibonelo, siyeka ukufafaza izinhlayiya ezikhanyayo emkhathini, uMhlaba uzoqala ukushisa ngokushesha okukhulu. Futhi ezizumayo zimbi kakhulu kunalezo ezihamba kancane.

Ucwaningo lwakamuva olushicilelwe ku-Journal of Geosciences lukwenza kucace lokhu. Ababhali bayo basebenzise amamodeli wesimo sezulu ayishumi nanye okokuqala ngqa ukubikezela ukuthi yini engenzeka uma umhlaba usebenzisa i-solar geoengineering ukuze uqedele ukwanda kwephesenti elilodwa lokukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide emhlabeni wonke minyaka yonke. Izindaba ezinhle ukuthi imodeli ingakwazi ukuzinzisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke, kodwa kubukeka sengathi uma i-geoengineering ibingayeka uma lokho sekufinyelelwe, kungaba nezigigaba zokushisa eziyinhlekelele.

Ochwepheshe futhi besaba ukuthi iphrojekthi edume kakhulu ye-geoengineering - ukumpompa i-sulphur dioxide emkhathini - ingase ifake ezinye izifunda engozini. Abasekeli bezenzo ezinjalo bayaphikisana. Ucwaningo olushicilelwe kumagazini i-Nature Climate Change ngoMashi 2019 luqinisekisa ukuthi imiphumela emibi yamaphrojekthi anjalo izokhawulelwa kakhulu. Omunye umbhali wocwaningo, u-prof. UDavid Keith waseHarvard, isazi sezobunjiniyela nenqubomgomo yomphakathi, uthi ososayensi akufanele nje bathinte i-geoengineering, ikakhulukazi ilanga.

- - Uthe. -

Isihloko sikaKeith sesigxekwe kakade yilabo abesaba ukuthi ososayensi bacabangela ngokweqile ubuchwepheshe obukhona nokuthi ithemba labo mayelana nezindlela ze-geoengineering lingadumaza umphakathi ekwenzeni imizamo yokunciphisa isisi esingcolisa umoya.

Ziningi izifundo ezikhombisa ukuthi kungakhungathekisa kanjani ukusetshenziswa kwe-geoengineering. Ngo-1991, ama-megaton angu-20 e-sulfur dioxide adedelwa emkhathini ophakeme, futhi yonke iplanethi yambozwa ungqimba lwesulfate, okubonisa ukukhanya okukhulu okubonakalayo. Umhlaba usuphole cishe ngohhafu wedigri Celsius. Kodwa ngemva kweminyaka embalwa, ama-sulfate awela emkhathini, futhi ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kwabuyela esimweni sako esidala, esingesihle neze.

Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi emhlabeni opholile, opholile we-post-Pinatubo, izitshalo zabonakala zenza kahle. Ikakhulukazi amahlathi. Olunye ucwaningo lwathola ukuthi ngezinsuku ezinelanga ngo-1992, i-photosynthesis ehlathini laseMassachusetts yenyuka ngo-23% uma kuqhathaniswa nangaphambi kokuqhuma. Lokhu kuqinisekise umbono wokuthi i-geoengineering ayizisongeli ezolimo. Kodwa-ke, ucwaningo olunemininingwane eminingi lubonise ukuthi ngemva kokuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo, izitshalo zombila zomhlaba zehla ngo-9,3%, kanti ukolweni, ubhontshisi wesoya nelayisi kwehla ngo-4,8%.

Futhi lokhu kufanele kupholise abasekeli bokuphola kwembulunga yonke.