Ukuphela kwesimo sezulu njengoba sisazi. Izinyathelo ezimbalwa zanele...

Isimo sezulu eplanethini enguMhlaba siye sashintsha izikhathi eziningi. Ukufudumala kunalokhu oyikho manje, ukufudumala kakhulu, bekulokhu kuningi lomlando walo. Ukupholisa kanye neqhwa kuphenduke iziqephu zesikhashana nje. Ngakho-ke yini eyenza siphathe ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa kwamanje njengento ekhethekile? Impendulo ithi: ngoba siyibiza, thina, ama-homo sapiens, ngobukhona bethu nomsebenzi wethu.

Isimo sezulu sishintshile kuwo wonke umlando. Ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwayo kwangaphakathi kanye nomthelela wezinto zangaphandle ezifana nokuqhuma kwentaba-mlilo noma izinguquko ekukhanyeni kwelanga.

Ubufakazi besayensi bukhombisa ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyinto evamile futhi sekwenzekile izigidi zeminyaka. Ngokwesibonelo, izigidigidi zeminyaka edlule, phakathi neminyaka yokukhula yokuphila, izinga lokushisa elivamile emhlabeni wethu laliphakeme kakhulu kunanamuhla - akukho lutho olukhethekile lapho lalingu-60-70 ° C (khumbula ukuthi umoya wawunokwakheka okuhlukile ngaleso sikhathi). Emlandweni omningi woMhlaba, indawo yawo yayingenaqhwa ngokuphelele - ngisho nasezigxotsheni. Inkathi eyavela ngayo, uma iqhathaniswa neminyaka eyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbalwa yokuba khona kweplanethi yethu, ingase ibhekwe njengemfushane kakhulu. Kwakukhona nezikhathi lapho iqhwa lalimboza izingxenye ezinkulu zomhlaba - lezi yizo esizibiza ngokuthi izikhathi. iminyaka yeqhwa. Zafika izikhathi eziningi, futhi ukupholisa kokugcina kuvela ekuqaleni kwenkathi yeQuaternary (cishe iminyaka eyizigidi ezi-2). Inkathi yeqhwa ehlangene yenzeke ngaphakathi kwemingcele yayo. izikhathi zokufudumala. Lokhu ukufudumala esinakho namuhla, futhi inkathi yeqhwa yokugcina yaphela iminyaka eyi-10. eminyakeni eminingi edlule.

Iminyaka eyizinkulungwane ezimbili yezinga lokushisa eliphakathi komhlaba ngokusho kokwakhiwa kabusha okuhlukile

I-Industrial Revolution = inguquko yesimo sezulu

Nokho, phakathi namakhulu amabili eminyaka adlule, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuye kwathuthuka ngokushesha kakhulu kunangaphambili. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwekhulu le-0,75, izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke liye lenyuka cishe ngo-1,5 ° C, futhi maphakathi naleli khulu leminyaka lingase lenyuke ngomunye u-2-XNUMX ° C.

Ukubikezela kokufudumala komhlaba kusetshenziswa amamodeli ahlukahlukene

Izindaba ukuthi manje, ngokokuqala ngqa emlandweni, isimo sezulu siyashintsha. kuthonywa imisebenzi yabantu. Lokhu bekulokhu kwenzeka kusukela uguquko lwezimboni lwaqala phakathi nawo-1800s. Kwaze kwaba cishe ngonyaka ka-280, ukugcwala kwesikhutha emkhathini kwahlala kungashintshile futhi kwaba izingxenye ezingu-1750 esigidini ngasinye. Ukusetshenziswa okukhulu kwezinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi njengamalahle, uwoyela negesi kuye kwaholela ekwandeni kwesisi esingcolisa umoya emoyeni. Isibonelo, ukugcwala kwe-carbon dioxide emkhathini kukhuphuke ngamaphesenti angama-31 kusukela ngo-151 (ukugxila kwe-methane ngama-50%!). Kusukela ekupheleni kweminyaka engu-XNUMX (ngoba ukuqapha okuhlelekile nokucophelela kakhulu kokuqukethwe kwe-CO emkhathini₂) ukugcwala kwale gesi emkhathini kweqe kusuka ezingxenyeni ezingu-315 ngesigidi (ppm air) kuya ezingxenyeni ezingu-398 ngesigidi ngo-2013. Ngokukhula kokushiswa kukaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi, ukwanda kokuhlushwa kwe-CO kuyakhula ngesivinini.₂ emoyeni. Njengamanje ikhula ngezingxenye ezimbili ngesigidi minyaka yonke. Uma lesi sibalo sihlala singashintshile, ngo-2040 sizofinyelela ku-450 ppm.

Nokho, lezi zenzakalo azizange zicasule Umphumela we-greenhouse, ngoba leli gama lifihla inqubo yemvelo ngokuphelele, ehlanganisa ukugcinwa kwamagesi abamba ukushisa akhona emkhathini wengxenye yamandla ayefinyelele eMhlabeni ngaphambili ngendlela yemisebe yelanga. Kodwa-ke, lapho amagesi abamba ukushisa eningi emkhathini, kulapho la mandla engeziwe (ukushisa okukhishwa nguMhlaba) angawabamba. Umphumela uba ukukhuphuka kwezinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke, okungukuthi, ukuthandwa ukufudumala komhlaba.

Ukukhishwa kwe-Carbon dioxide "ngempucuko" kusekuncane uma kuqhathaniswa nokukhipha okuvela emithonjeni yemvelo, olwandle noma izitshalo. Abantu bakhipha u-5% kuphela wale gesi emkhathini. amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-10 uma kuqhathaniswa namathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-90 avela olwandle, amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-60 avela enhlabathini kanye nenani elifanayo elivela ezitshalweni aliningi. Kodwa-ke, ngokukhipha kanye nokushisa izinto zokubasa ezimbiwa phansi, sethula ngokushesha umjikelezo wekhabhoni imvelo ewususa kuwo phakathi namashumi kuya kumakhulu ezigidi zeminyaka. Ukwanda okubonwayo kwaminyaka yonke ekuhlanganiseni kwe-carbon dioxide emkhathini ngo-2 ppm kubonisa ukwanda kwesisindo sekhabhoni yasemkhathini ngamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-4,25. Ngakho akukhona ukuthi sikhipha okungaphezu kwemvelo, kodwa ukuthi siphazamisa ibhalansi yemvelo futhi siphonsa ukweqisa okukhulu kwe-CO emkhathini unyaka ngamunye.₂.

Izimila zijabulela lokhu kugcwala okuphezulu kwe-carbon dioxide emkhathini kuze kube manje ngoba i-photosynthesis inokuthile ekudlayo. Nokho, ukuguquguquka kwezindawo zesimo sezulu, imingcele yamanzi kanye nokugawulwa kwamahlathi kusho ukuthi ngeke abe khona “oyedwa” ozomunca isikhutha esiningi. Ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa kuzophinde kusheshise izinqubo zokubola kanye nokukhululwa kwekhabhoni ngokusebenzisa inhlabathi, okuholela ukuncibilika kwe-permafrost kanye nokukhululwa kwezinto eziphilayo eziboshiwe.

Okufudumalayo, abampofu kakhulu

Ngokufudumala, kuba nezimo zezulu ezikhulayo. Uma izinguquko zingayekwa, ososayensi babikezela ukuthi izimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu - amagagasi okushisa aphakeme, amagagasi okushisa, irekhodi lemvula, kanye nesomiso, izikhukhula nama-avalanches - zizovame kakhulu.

Ukubonakaliswa okwedlulele kwezinguquko eziqhubekayo kunomthelela onamandla empilweni yabantu, izilwane nezitshalo. Ziphinde zibe nomthelela empilweni yomuntu. Ngenxa yokufudumala kwesimo sezulu, i.e. ukwanda kwezifo ezindaweni ezishisayonjengomalaleveva kanye nomkhuhlane wodenga. Imiphumela yezinguquko iyabonakala nasemnothweni. Ngokusho kwe-International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ukunyuka kwezinga lokushisa ngo-2,5 ​​degree kuzolenza libe yimbulunga yonke. ukwehla kwe-GDP (Isamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya) ngo-1,5-2%.

Kakade lapho izinga lokushisa elivamile likhuphuka ngengxenye nje yedigri Celsius, sibona izinto eziningi ezingakaze zibonwe: ukushisa okurekhodiwe, izinguzunga zeqhwa ezincibilikayo, iziphepho ezikhulayo, ukucekelwa phansi kweqhwa lase-Arctic kanye neqhwa lase-Antarctic, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle, ukuncibilika kweqhwa. , izivunguvungu. iziphepho, ugwadule, isomiso, imililo nezikhukhula. Ngokusho kochwepheshe, izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile lomhlaba ekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka khuphuka ngo-3-4 ° С, kanye namazwe - ngaphakathi I-4-7 ° C futhi lokhu ngeke kube ukuphela kwenqubo nhlobo. Cishe eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, ososayensi babikezela lokho ekupheleni kwekhulu lesi-XNUMX izindawo zesimo sezulu zizoshintsha ibanga 200-400 km. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, lokhu sekuvele kwenzeka eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule, okungukuthi, emashumini eminyaka ngaphambili.

 Ukulahlekelwa yiqhwa e-Arctic - 1984 vs. 2012 ukuqhathanisa

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuphinde kusho izinguquko ezinhlelweni zokucindezela kanye nezikhombisi-ndlela zomoya. Izinkathi zemvula zizoshintsha futhi izindawo ezinemvula zizoshintsha. Umphumela uzoba izingwadule ezinyakazayo. Phakathi kokunye, i-Europe eseningizimu ne-USA, iNingizimu Afrika, i-Amazon basin ne-Australia. Ngokombiko we-IPCC ka-2007, abantu abaphakathi kwezigidigidi ezi-2080 nezingu-1,1 bazohlala bengenawo amanzi ngo-3,2. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-600 bazolamba.

Amanzi ngenhla

I-Alaska, i-New Zealand, i-Himalayas, i-Andes, i-Alps - izinguzunga zeqhwa zincibilika yonke indawo. Ngenxa yalezi zinqubo e-Himalayas, i-China izolahlekelwa izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zesisindo sezinguzunga zeqhwa maphakathi nekhulu leminyaka. E-Switzerland, amanye amabhange awasazimisele ukuboleka izindawo zokungcebeleka eqhweni ezingaphansi kwamamitha angu-1500 1850 ngaphezu kolwandle.E-Andes, ukushabalala kwemifula egeleza esuka eziqhweni zeqhwa akuholeli nje kuphela ezinkingeni zokuhlinzekwa kwamanzi kwezolimo nakubantu basemadolobheni, kodwa nasekucinyweni kukagesi. EMontana, eGlacier National Park, kwakunezinguzunga zeqhwa ezingu-150 ngo-27, namuhla kusasele ezingu-2030. Kubikezelwa ukuthi ngo-XNUMX kuyobe kungasekho.

Uma iqhwa laseGreenland lincibilika, amazinga olwandle azokhuphuka ngo-7m futhi lonke iqhwa lase-Antarctic lizokhuphuka ngamamitha angu-70. Amazinga olwandle omhlaba wonke abikezelwa ukuthi azokhuphuka ngo-1-1,5m ekupheleni kwaleli khulu leminyaka, futhi kamuva, kancane kancane akhuphuka. enye ifinyelela ku-XNUMX m amashumi amaningana amamitha. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, amakhulu ezigidi zabantu ahlala ezindaweni ezisogwini.

Idolobhana elisesiqhingini saseChoiseul

Izakhamuzi ziyaqhubeka I-Choiseul Island Eziqhingini zaseSolomon Islands, kakade kuye kwadingeka bashiye amakhaya abo ngenxa yengozi yezikhukhula ebangelwa ukunyuka kwamanzi oLwandlekazini iPacific. Abacwaningi babaxwayise ngokuthi ngenxa yengozi yeziphepho ezinamandla, ama-tsunami nokunyakaza kokuzamazama komhlaba, amakhaya abo angashabalala ebusweni boMhlaba nganoma yisiphi isikhathi. Ngesizathu esifanayo, kunenqubo yokuhlaliswa kabusha kwabakhileyo esiqhingini saseHan ePapua New Guinea, futhi inani labantu baseziqhingini zasePacific eKiribati maduze nje lizofana.

Abanye bathi ukufudumala kungaletha izinzuzo - ngendlela yokuthuthukiswa kwezolimo ezindaweni ezingasahlali muntu ezisenyakatho yeCanada naseSiberia. Nokho, umbono okhona uwukuthi emhlabeni wonke lokhu kuzoletha ukulahlekelwa okwengeziwe kunezinzuzo. Ukukhuphuka kwezinga lamanzi kungadala izinga elikhulu lokufudukela ezindaweni eziphakeme, amanzi azokhukhula izimboni namadolobha - intengo yezinguquko ezinjalo ingaba yingozi emnothweni wezwe kanye nempucuko yonkana.