Izibikezelo zesikhathi eside zemakethe yezindiza

Isikhungo sokuhlola nokuqoqwa kwe-Airbus e-Toulouse-Blagnac Airport e-France. Izithombe ze-Airbus

Abakhiqizi bezindiza zezokuxhumana bashicilele izinhlelo ezilandelanayo zezibikezelo zesikhathi eside zemakethe yokuhamba ngendiza. Ngokwezilinganiso zabo, eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo, i-2018-2037, ezokuthutha zizokhula izikhathi ezingu-2,5, futhi izindiza zizothenga: ngokusho kwe-Boeing - izindiza eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-42,7 (ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-6,35), futhi ngokusho kwe-Airbus - izinkulungwane ezingama-37,4. Ezibikezelweni zayo , umkhiqizi waseYurophu usebenzelana nezimoto ezinomthamo wezihlalo ezingaphezu kuka-100, kanti eyaseMelika enezindiza ezincane. U-Embraer ulinganisela isidingo sezindiza zesifunda ezinomthamo wezihlalo ezifika ku-150 ku-10,5 ayizinkulungwane. amayunithi, kanye ne-MFR yama-turboprops ngezinkulungwane ezi-3,02. Abahlaziyi be-Boeing babikezela ukuthi emashumini amabili eminyaka inani lezindiza lizokhuphuka lisuka ku-24,4 48,5 yamanje. kuze kufike kumayunithi ayizinkulungwane eziyi-8,8, kanti umthamo wemakethe yezokuthutha emoyeni uzoba ngamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-XNUMX.

Maphakathi nonyaka, abakhiqizi bezindiza zokuxhumana bashicilela ukukhishwa okujwayelekile kwezibikezelo zesikhathi eside zemakethe yezokuthutha emoyeni. Ucwaningo lwe-Boeing lubizwa nge-Current Market Outlook - CMO (Current Market Outlook) kanye ne-Airbus Global Market Forecast - GMF (Isibikezelo Semakethe Yomhlaba). Ekuhlaziyeni kwayo, umkhiqizi waseYurophu usebenzelana nezindiza ezinomthamo wezihlalo ezingaphezu kwe-100, kuyilapho umkhiqizi waseMelika esebenza ngezindiza zesifunda ezinezihlalo ezingu-90. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izibikezelo ezilungiselelwe yi-Bombardier, Embraer kanye ne-ATR zigxila kumajethi esifunda, okuyisihloko sentshisekelo yabo yokukhiqiza.

Ezibikezelweni ezihlukene, abahlaziyi bezimakethe balinganisela: umthamo wokuhamba emoyeni kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwemikhumbi ngezifunda zomhlaba kanye nezimo zezezimali zokusebenza kwemakethe yezokuthutha emoyeni eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo 2018-2037. Ukulungiselelwa kokukhishwa kwesibikezelo sakamuva kwandulelwa ukuhlaziya okujulile kwethrafikhi emizileni ematasatasa kanye nezinguquko zenani ezenziwe kule mikhumbi, enabasebenzi abakhulu kunawo wonke, kanye nezindleko zokusebenza zezingxenye zomzila ngamunye. imakethe yokuhamba ngendiza. Izibikezelo azisetshenziswa kuphela abaphathi bezindiza kanye nabakhiqizi bezindiza zokuxhumana, kodwa futhi nabamabhange, abahlaziyi bezimakethe zezindiza kanye nokuphatha kukahulumeni okuthintekayo.

Isibikezelo sethrafikhi yezindiza

Abahlaziyi bemakethe yezindiza, abalungiselele ukukhishwa kwakamuva kwezibikezelo zesikhathi eside, baqhubekele eqinisweni lokuthi isilinganiso sokukhula komnotho ngonyaka we-GDP yomhlaba (umkhiqizo wasekhaya omkhulu) kuzoba ngu-2,8%. Amazwe akulesi sifunda: i-Asia-Pacific - 3,9%, Middle East - 3,5%, i-Afrika - 3,3% kanye neNingizimu Melika - 3,0% izoqopha ukukhula okuphezulu kwaminyaka yonke kwezomnotho wawo, futhi ngaphansi kwesilinganiso somhlaba wonke: IYurophu - 1,7, 2 %, eNyakatho Melika - 2% naseRussia nase-Asia Ephakathi - 4,7%. Ukuthuthukiswa komnotho kuzohlinzeka ngokunyuka okuphakathi konyaka kwezimoto zabagibeli ezingeni lika-XNUMX%. Ukukhula kwezokuthutha, ngaphezu komnotho, kuzoba umphumela ikakhulukazi walokhu: ukukhululeka kwezimakethe kanye nokwanda okuqhubekayo kwenethiwekhi yezokuxhumana, amanani aphansi amathikithi, kanye nomthelela omuhle wokuthuthukiswa kwezohwebo zomhlaba kanye nezokuvakasha zamazwe ngamazwe. Ngokokuqala ngqa eminyakeni eminingi, sibona ukukhula komnotho kuzo zonke izifunda zomhlaba kudala izikhuthazo ezengeziwe zokuhamba ngezindiza emhlabeni jikelele. "Sibona izitayela eziqinile zokukhula hhayi kuphela ezimakethe ezisafufusa e-China nase-India, kodwa nasezimakethe ezivuthiwe eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika," kusho iPhini Likamongameli we-Boeing Wezokumaketha u-Randy Tinseth ekuhlaziyeni kwesibikezelo.

Umshayeli oyinhloko wokuthuthukiswa kokuhamba ngendiza kuzoba ukukhula kwenani labantu kanye nokwanda kancane kancane kwesigaba esimaphakathi (okungukuthi abantu abahola phakathi kuka-$10 no-$100 ngosuku, la manani alungiselelwa amandla okuthenga ezinhlobo zemali ngazinye). Abahlaziyi be-Airbus babale ukuthi phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili inani labantu emhlabeni lizokwenyuka ngo-16% (lisuka ku-7,75 liye ku-9,01 billion), kanye nesigaba esimaphakathi ngama-69% (kusuka ku-2,98 kuya ku-5,05 billion). Ukwanda okukhulu, okuphindwe kabili kwenani labantu besigaba esiphakathi kuzorekhodwa e-Asia (kusuka ku-1,41 kuya ku-2,81 abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane), futhi amandla amakhulu kakhulu azoba se-Afrika (kusuka ku-220 kuya ku-530 million). Ezimakethe ezinkulu zaseYurophu naseNyakatho Melika, usayizi ohlongozwayo wesigaba esiphakathi ngeke ushintshe kakhulu futhi uzohlala ezingeni lezigidi ezingu-450-480 (iYurophu) kanye nezigidi ezingu-260 (eNyakatho Melika), ngokulandelana. Kumele kuqashelwe ukuthi isigaba esiphakathi njengamanje senza ama-38% abantu bomhlaba, futhi eminyakeni engamashumi amabili isabelo saso sizokhula sibe ngu-56%. Amandla akhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kokuhamba ngendiza kuzoba ukukhula kwedolobha okuthuthukayo kanye nokukhula kwengcebo yezimakethe ezisafufusa ezinamandla amakhulu (okuhlanganisa: i-India, i-China, iNingizimu Melika, i-Central Europe ne-Russia). Njengoba isibalo sabantu abayizigidigidi eziyisi-6,7 kulezi zifunda, ukuhamba ngendiza kuzokhula ngesilinganiso esingu-5,7% ngonyaka, kanti isibalo sabantu abafisa ukuhamba ngendiza sizophindeka kathathu. Eminyakeni embalwa ezayo, imakethe yezindiza yasekhaya yaseChina izoba enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ezimakethe ezithuthukisiwe (kuhlanganise neNyakatho Melika, iNtshonalanga Yurophu, iJapane, iSingapore, iSouth Korea ne-Australia) ezinabantu abangaphezu kwebhiliyoni, ithrafikhi izokhula ngesilinganiso se-3,1%. Isidingo sezinto zokuhamba ngendiza sizoholela ekuthuthukisweni kwezikhumulo zezindiza, okuhlanganisa izindawo zokudlulisa eziseduze nezindawo zamadolobha amakhulu (zikhiqiza abagibeli abangaphezu kwe-10 nsuku zonke emizileni edonsa isikhathi eside). Ngo-2037, izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zabantu bomhlaba zizohlala emadolobheni, futhi inani lama-megacities lizokhula lisuka ku-64 lamanje liye ku-210 (ngo-2027) kanye no-328 (ngo-2037).

Izifunda ezithuthuka ngamandla zizoba: INingizimu Melika, isifunda sase-Asia-Pacific kanye neMpumalanga Ephakathi, ezokhula ngesilinganiso sonyaka se-5-5,5%, kanye ne-Afrika - 6%. Ezimakethe ezimbili ezinkulu zaseYurophu naseNyakatho Melika, ukukhula kuzoba ngokulinganisela ku-3,1% no-3,8%, ngokulandelana. Njengoba lezi zimakethe zizokhula ngenani eliphansi kunesilinganiso somhlaba wonke (4,7%), isabelo sazo kuthrafikhi yomhlaba wonke sizokwehla kancane kancane. Ngo-1990, ingxenye ehlanganisiwe yemakethe yaseMelika neYurophu yayingama-72%, ngo-2010 - 55%, eminyakeni eyishumi nanhlanu edlule - 49%, eminyakeni engamashumi amabili lesi sabelo sizokwehla sibe ngu-37%. Kodwa-ke, lokhu akuwona umphumela wokugcwala okuphezulu kuphela kokuma.

Ukuguquguquka kwaminyaka yonke kwezokuthutha emoyeni ngamaphesenti ambalwa kuzoholela ekutheni eminyakeni engu-20 isibalo sabagibeli sizokhula sisuka ku-4,1 samanje siye ku-10 billion, kanye nokukhiqiza kwezokuthutha sisuka ku-7,6 trillion pkm (pass.-km) siye cishe ku-19 trillion. pkm. . I-Boeing ilinganisela ukuthi ngo-2037 izindawo ezinomthamo omkhulu kuzoba imizila yasekhaya e-China (2,4 trillion pkm), eNyakatho Melika (2,0 trillion pkm), i-Europe kanye ne-Southeast Asia, kanye nokuxhuma kusuka eYurophu kuya eNyakatho Melika (0,9 trillion pkm). . ) kanye naseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Isabelo semakethe yase-Asia emhlabeni okwamanje singama-33%, futhi emashumini amabili eminyaka sizofinyelela ku-40%. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imakethe yaseYurophu izokwehla isuka ku-25% yamanje iye ku-21%, futhi imakethe yaseNyakatho Melika isuka ku-21% iye ku-16%. Imakethe yaseNingizimu Melika izohlala ingashintshiwe ngesabelo sika-5%, iRussia ne-Asia Ephakathi - 4% kanye ne-Afrika - 3%.